Anda akan ingat pengeluaran yang bermula pada penghujung Mac tahun ini. That coincided with major shifts in every currency pair in the portfolio. It was an unpleasant experience to say the least.
The shifting appears to be over with. We can get back to the strong trends that the strategy thrives on. QB Pro finished the month up 13.6%.
I project things to get better now that the markets are strongly trending. They’ve again picked a direction and really stuck to it.
The changes made last month paid off. Yang isyarat bunyi nisbah kept us out of some losing trades. The core QB Pro strategy, depicted in this graph from Myfxbook, shows that it’s clearly tracking well under the current market conditions.
The QB Yen strategy posted a minor loss. The performance doesn’t discourage me at all. Yang berkata, the numbers are telling me that I overweighted the trending component this month. I’m going to put more of the portfolio weight back into QB Pro and take it away from QB Yen.
There are two things that I love about the trending strategy.
1. It’s a trending strategy. It gives us a chance to make money when we’d otherwise be sitting out of the market
2. It expects to make money over the long run
Things are looking great. I’m going to keep the maximum leverage in place at 35:1 on the expectation of similar future performance.
Big news
Now that things are back on track, I’m planning to open QB Pro to new traders in July. Why should you consider joining QB Pro?
- Best way to learn is to have money on the line
- You can see open trades in real time
- Learn what it’s like to suffer knowing that your trading rules expect to contain a mathematical edge
- You are willing to risk your money. You face the very real possibility of loss.
QB Pro is open to everyone except US residents and citizens.
If you’re not on my mailing list, make sure that you register so that you’ll receive updates when slots for QB Pro open.
Andrew berkata
Menarik. On what basis do you judge that every currency pair encountered a major shift. Shift in what? And what would be the causes?
I ask because I am running 11 strategies that have 40 months solid back test records, each with max DD of around 20%, but during May and June this year they almost all tanked in unison (antara 10 dan 15% DD each), unlike their previous years back test performance.
I too am hoping for a more productive July.
Shaun Overton berkata
Hei Andrew,
I use a long term trend filter. You’ll notice for the most part that my trades on a given currency are either all long or all short. Like any filter, it’s prone to oscillation when the trend is near the 0 nilai. It just so happened that almost every currency pair was near the filter’s 0 value in April-May, causing me to get whipsawed repeatedly. The April pain started when the trends reversed strongly near the 0 nilai. I was zigging when the market was zagging.
It’s a problem to think about. I could use multiple filters. Akhirnya, if the market was going up and then decides to plumment, no amount of trend filters will avoid that scenario. The best realistic solution is to minimize the damage.
Nassim Taleb would characterize that as a robust strategy rather than anti-fragile. That’s a big reason why I’m excited to add QB Yen as a substrategy to the portfolio.
Andrew berkata
Shaun terima kasih. Would you share those long term settings? Is it something like the 50 and 200SMAs?
In my EAs I sometimes use a filter on the MACD (long period settings) so that the histogram has to be at least x units above or below zero line before triggering. That deals with some of the whipsawing. But if x is too large you of course get into a trend rather late when the trend does develop.
Shaun Overton berkata
Hei Andrew,
The MACD is a solid way of minimizing whip saws. It’s best used as a filter rather than a trigger, just like you’re doing.
As for the long term filters, I do have to keep some things proprietary 😉
William berkata
If your located in Dallas TX why does it say QB pro is not ope for US residents ?
Shaun Overton berkata
Hi William,
Very good point. QB Pro is owned by my Irish company Dominari Online Courses Ltd. I am the trader, but I pay myself as a contractor. I admit it sounds a little convoluted.
I cannot accept US traders because neither myself nor my companies are NFA/CFTC registered.