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7 Things You Need To Become A Successful Forex Trader

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If you make the decision to start trading forex to earn extra income it is vital that you set yourself up to succeed. To do so you need to be aware of the 7 things you need to become a successful forex trader.

The desire to succeed

まず, it is elementary that you commit fully to the process of becoming a forex trader. That means that you are willing to put the time in to learn all important aspects of currency trading and the global currency market. You will only have the motivation to put the time in to learn, if you truly have the desire to succeed and make money trading currencies.

A genuine interest in forex, economics and the financial markets

Secondly, and this ties in with the first point, if you want to succeed as a currency trader it is vital that you have a genuine interest in the financial markets. If you are doing it just to make a quick buck, without actually putting in the regular work of reading financial news, analyzing charts and reading daily currency market updates, then you will most likely not succeed. Furthermore, you will need to learn about macroeconomics, as economic data and central bank policies are key drivers of the foreign exchange market. それゆえ, having a genuine interest in what moves the financial markets is a key component to becoming a successful currency trader.

The economist

The right online broker

There is a vast choice of online brokers that charge different spreads and commissions and have different product ranges. それゆえ, it is important to choose an online broker that is right for you. To do so, you need to choose a broker that covers the asset classes and currency pairs you wish to trade, charges you comparatively low fees, offers tight spreads, has a good reputation and is regulated by your country’s financial regulatory body.

It is also important that the online broker you choose offers easy-to-use chart analysis tools, timely market news updates and possesses good customer service. The best way to choose a broker is to check independent broker reviews and comparisons online.

Trading capital (but less than you might think)

To start trading forex you need a certain amount of capital. しかし, it is must less than you might think if you choose to trade with leverage. Leverage in the foreign exchange market refers to the ability to move, たとえば, 米ドル 100 dollars worth of a currency using only USD 1. This would be leverage of 100:1, which is a popular leverage amount in the currency market. Other common leverage amounts are 50:1 と 20:1. Using leverage you can move large amounts of a security by only putting down a small initial amount per trade. This small amount is referred to as the initial margin.

The best way to use leverage is by trading so-called CFDs (contracts for difference) as they allow you to set your leverage, as you require it. By adopting a CFDs trading strategy you are able to profit off small moves in the currency pairs you are trading without putting down a large amount of capital on each trade. それゆえ, this is the best way to trade currencies if you only have a small amount of available trading capital.

trade cfds

The right trading strategy

Once you feel comfortable with the currency market’s terminology and mechanics and you have deposited your trading capital into your online brokerage account, it’s time for you to apply the right trading strategy.

When it comes to trading currencies there are many approaches you can take. たとえば, you can apply more of a momentum trading strategy and put on trades just after market moving news, such as economic data announcements, or you can use a technical indicators-based trading strategy and follow a set of indicators that give you buy and sell signals for the currency pairs you follow. もちろんです, there are many more approaches you can take. It is important for you to find a strategy that suits your style of trading and is in line with your risk-return profile.

The discipline to stick to your strategy

Once you have found a trading strategy that works for you, it is important that you have the discipline to stick to your trading strategy. A great way to ensure you don’t let emotions get in the way of you following your strategy is to set target prices and stop-losses, where your broker automatically buys or sells the currency you hold against another, once these trading levels have been hit.

online trading

The emotional stability to handle losses

最後に, if you truly want to succeed as a forex trader you need to develop the emotional stability to handle losses. No matter how good your trading strategy is you will have days where you will generate losses. It is important to accept down days and not let your losses affect you emotionally, as this could impair you when you put on further trades.

Trading Successfully When You’re Nervous

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Trading textbooks are filled with methods and techniques to reduce the tension you feel when trading. Suggestions range from the most common, すなわち. starting with small amounts and low leverage to instilling a disciplined strategy. If you’ve just started your trading adventure then this is exactly what you need.

But perhaps you’ve got a different story. Maybe you’re already a successful trader, having implemented all those discipline-while-trading tips. 突然, out of nowhere, you get the jitters, just as you did as a rookie.

There is hardly anything more discouraging. Could it be you no longer have what it takes? You just can’t shake that feeling that perhaps you should stop trading before it gets worse.

But that’s まさに what you shouldn’t do. You want to become a better trader, a real pro, don’t you? まあ, overcoming your jitters, just as you did in your early trading days, is the key.

How can you overcome a clear cut case of the jitters? It may surprise you but implementing a few simple tips can make all the difference. この記事で, we’ll focus on two key reasons why an experienced trader gets nervous and the tips to overcome it.

Trading With Big Money and Staying Cool

多くの場合, when we significantly raise the amounts we risk per trade we start getting more and more nervous. Say that all along, you’ve acted prudently. You’ve raised the amount you risk slowly and steadily and successfully managed to keep your cool.

Your plan is to make significantly life-changing profits from trading. 今のところ, the amounts you risk are more considerable and that’s started to make you nervous. 最終的に, each and every trade becomes a nerve-wracking event. You’re thinking about reverting back to small amounts. But what you’ll gain from your fears is just peanuts, 比較的, not “real” money.

So why have you suddenly turned nervous when you raised the stakes? It’s simple, 本当に. Your subconscious tells you that this is big money. と, もちろんです, big money decisions shouldn’t be taken lightly. When you trade, you get the feeling you’re making decisions too quickly.

残念なことに, your brain is wired in a way that doesn’t let you concentrate when you’re nervous. When you’re nervous, your brain is primed to take action, not think.

A tip for trading big money:

Let me ask you a question. How often have you lost your keys when you’re in a rush to get out the door? You frantically, yet futilely, search high and low. It’s only when you’ve calmed down and thought about them that you’re finally able to find them.

今のところ, if you had left your keys in a regular spot, you can always find them. Even when you’re nervous or in a hurry your keys will always be exactly where you left them. That’s exactly where the solution to trading lays.

You simply have to break down all of your trading strategy to very simple actions. 例えば, if A equals B, then you have to do C. Everything has to become a habit, a routine, あなたがする場合; just like the keys you always put in the same place.

This essentially eliminates the need for you to think when you’re nervous. It won’t allow your fear of bigger amounts to interfere with your rational trading decisions. 最終的に, 時間をかけて, as you stick to simple actions and a no-thinking strategy, you can begin trusting yourself again. The nervousness will go away. 今のところ, you can trade big money with calm and confidence. You’re on your way to becoming a more professional trader.

Here is a really simple example of how one could do that. Below you see an hypothetical trade that has an entry signal and a day after an exit signal. Those signals are programmed, as if they were conditions in an Excel spreadsheet. In real time, the trader doesn’t need to think or analyze. He just fills in the values and gets the outputs: エントリ, 出口, raise, 損失を停止します。, close position, lower leverage, など.

Nothing is left to chance. The trader can be nervous or calm; regardless, his performance will be undisturbed.

取引

取引

Your strategy stopped working:

Your strategy, which had been lucrative and successful, is suddenly losing money. Has it stopped working altogether? Or is it a transitory problem? You thought you had something solid but now you believe you don’t. You can’t figure it out and you become nervous as times goes by.

Want a tip for fixing a faulty trading strategy?

The key here is to investigate. Don’t simply conclude that your strategy isn’t working before you’re absolutely certain. Determine the why first instead of getting frustrated and nervous.

The first thing to check is the execution. たとえば, have you changed your broker? Are the execution levels, commissions and fees the same? A change in the spread or slippage can go a long way toward sabotaging a strategy.

Shaun Overton recently published a rather helpful account of his scrutiny into his broker’s execution. Although he doesn’t discuss all possible aspects he offers his conclusions. Shaun’s insights provide a strong argument as to how one should approach an execution problem.

The second thing to check is whether market conditions have changed. Bear in mind that a small adjustment can often make a big difference. The reality is the answer might be right under your nose. If that is the case, I recommend revisiting my article on fixing a 取引戦略.

ボトムライン

These tips are aimed at prudent traders who’ve reached a point where their trading results are impacting their financials. Both problems revolve around one clear truth. When you trade and you’re nervous it’s because something isn’t working or not working well. The solution is clear as well; isolate the problem, solve it, keep calm and trade on.

How to Trade a “Wild” Currency

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外国為替の, there’s a clear distinction between two groups of currencies—the majors and the exotics. The majors include the currencies that we all trade and which are relativity low in volatility, such as the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen and the Pound Sterling. Among the exotics, we can find riskier and more volatile currencies such as the Brazilian Real, the Russian Ruble and the Korean Won.

But most of us know, even if subconsciously, that within the exotics there are those which are somewhat “tradable,” such as the Chilean or Mexican Peso. And then, もちろんです, there are those with more risk, for example the aforementioned Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble, as well as the Turkish Lira.

Those would be considered the “wild” currencies, usually eclipsed by some sort crisis which makes them highly unpredictable to the forex trader. Even if an opportunity emerges, if the currency is wild, most forex traders will move on to something safer. That’s a fair call. But there is a “third way;” I call it trading a proxy currency.

The logic is rather simple. Suppose you want to trade the Brazilian Real (or BRL), but you want to avoid the high level of volatility that comes along with trading it. You could either avoid the BRL altogether or you could trade a currency that has a correlation with the BRL but which is less volatile. しかし, correlation simply isn’t enough; the currencies must also be from the same family.

たとえば, in the case of the BRL, the Mexican Peso (or MXN) would be an excellent choice; both have correlation and both are commodity-related currencies in Latin America. Those are a perfect match because the MXN is less volatile yet clearly related. This is important because it means the correlation level is more stable and it means you could time your trades better.

The Two Layer Trigger

Continuing on with our BRL sample, once we found our proxy currency we next move on to practice. I like to call it the two-layer trigger. Let’s say we want to trade the USDBRL and use the proxy pair of USDMXN for the actual trade. Since we really want to trade only when the two are moving in tandem, we need two triggers to open one trade. We will want to get a buy/sell trigger in the USDBRL and then wait for another signal in the USDMXN to open our trade. If the two triggers are not activated then no trade is executed. As you can see in the sample below, at times the signal in the proxy pair appears in delay.

貿易

Why is the two-layer trigger important? ため、, それに直面しよう, the reason to trade a wild currency in the first place is because something dramatic is happening and that means it can be quite lucrative. If the activity isn’t sufficient to move the currency と the currencies that move in tandem with it, then the activity is not dramatic enough. And if it’s not dramatic enough that means that the trend is weak and probably not worth the extra risk. その場合, you could just trade the USDMXN.

貿易

賛否両論

So what is the benefit of actually trading a wild currency if a proxy currency is required? 最初です, wild currencies tend to have dramatic movements that often don’t correlate with the major currencies. So the majors pairs are in a period of sideways trading, thus trading a wild currency through a proxy could generate profits when your other strategies are not. And it’s always a good idea to have strategies for different types of markets.

The downside is that, despite using a proxy, it is still more risky than trading majors, and it is even more complex if you’re not trading with an algo.

So worth it or not depends on your appetite for risk and complexity. But surely, under the right circumstances, trading a wild currency with a proxy could be rather rewarding.

Correction vs Change in Trend

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How many times you have seen an FX pair, or any other instrument for that matter, start moving opposite to the trend? Did you wonder was it a mere correction or were you perhaps witnessing a change in trend? Your conclusion will have an acute impact on how you choose your next trade and thus your profit or loss.

もちろんです, it’s impossible to be 100% certain. But here are three simple methods that could help you decide which could dramatically improve your odds of being right.

Correction zone

The first method to identify a correction or a change in trend is one I like to call the “zone method.” The idea behind it is rather simple.

When a support line has also been a resistance line it’s no longer just support and resistance. むしろ, it is a border trimming between two separate zones. One is a zone where the pair is bullish and likely to move higher. The other is a zone where the pair is bearish and likely to move lower.

If that zone hasn’t changed, then it’s a temporary correction. If the zone has changed, then it’s a change in trend. From the EURUSD chart below you can see when the 1.168 was broken back in 2014, the pair moved into a bearish zone. If the EURUSD had rebounded back to the bullish zone, then that would mean the trend had changed to bullish.

zones_fin

The Trend Average

The second method that is useful in gauging a correction or trend change is done by running a moving average. The trick here is to play with the average period until it captures nearly all the trend. You can also switch between an exponential moving average and a simple moving average. 時々, an exponential captures the trend better and other times, a simple moving average is all you need. The idea here is to tweak, or fine tune, あなたがする場合. In our case, the trend has to be below the average.

それをしたら, you need to see how the current correction stakes up against the rest. If the latest correction is below the average then it’s a mere correction. If the average is broken, the trend has changed, just as can be seen in the chart below.

Notice that this method is usually effective where the trend is on a rather linear path. It might work on more volatile trends but it will not always be effective.

Correction

Failed Record

The last of the simple signals is actually more a matter of probability than a proper signal. And it’s actually the simplest to identify. Simply put it is when a pair fails to break a record and it doesn’t matter if it’s a record high or record low.

通常, three is the lucky charm. Say the pair fails to break a record on the third attempt, as in the examples below. その後、, there’s a higher likelihood that this is more than a mere correction. When a record high or record low is involved, there’s a much higher likelihood that this is not a mere correction but a change in trend.

Correction

結論として

As you may expect, there are many more methods to differentiate between a correction and a change in trend. Some are more advanced and complicated. Others, like Fibonacci retracement which often times is used incorrectly, tend to be misleading.

While the methods above are far from perfect, the average trader might find that they are simple and easy to implement. They could, therefore, serve him well as he tries to determine if the pair is in correction mode or an actual change in trend.

How to Profit from Vertical Shorting

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It’s not hard to decide if the trend is up or down. But have you ever noticed that sometimes the momentum is so intense the trend almost seems vertical? Kind of like the pair is falling off a cliff or ascending like a rocket?

The pair moves hard in a very short amount of time. I like to call those types of swings “vertical trades”, 長いか短いかどうか. In this article I intend to focus on my personal favorite, vertical shorting.

Basics of Vertical Shorting

Before delving into the technicalities, it’s always wise to first understand the fundamental mechanics behind a trade. 最初, what causes the market to move in a vertical short? It is a sudden wave of sellers that overwhelms the buyers so much that nothing can stop them. The pair, rather than moving lower in waves, moves lower almost in a vertical line.

Spotting the Vertical Short

It’s often true that when the market move down in a vertical manner, shorting at the right time is impossible. Very often, something unexpected has happened. That generally is what leads to a sudden wave of selling. 時々, it is a set of economic indicators which have surprised the market. その後、, a massive short selling wave begins.

On occasion, the piling up of massive short selling is evident just before the burst. And when that happens, it’s the ideal time to ride. Just start shorting and wait for the vertical short to do its thing.

What we can see in the EURUSD chart below is what I consider the ideal pattern for a vertical short. That’s simply because it’s perfectly evident and easy to implement, even for traders without years of experience.

What are the evident signs? At the beginning of the trend, marked with point A, we can see a regular bearish trade. しかし, as we move to point B, something quite interesting happens. There is a new sub-trend (marked in blue) with a steeper angle. 我々が見ることができるように, the ensuing waves, rather than reaching the red line at the peak, tend to top out much lower.

That is our sign that a vertical trend is coming. Going back to the basics, it can mean only one thing. That is that the volume of short selling is overwhelming the buys. Soon we will have a vertical, falling off a cliff sort of selloff.

Shorting

When to Start Shorting?

Just like any trend, timing the exact phase in which you should begin shorting is important. With the right timing, you can maximize your profit and minimize your risk. Some might presume that the right time would be the break of the lower trend line. But that’s not always smart. Usually the break of the lower trend line is so abrupt that, by the time the break is confirmed, the market has moved too far off. その後、, you might find yourself risking much more to profit much less.

しかし, if we had started shorting at point C, we could put a rather close stop loss (すなわち. risking little) and bank on that vertical short. How would we spot our next point C? My rule of thumb is this: the third time the pair tops out (at our new blue trend line) that’s the confirmation that a vertical short is imminent.

今のところ, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the pair will fall off a cliff right afterward. しかし, the pair is likely to continue to slide lower anyhow until the burst. So even if the “spark” comes a bit after we are already banking on profits.

Stop Loss for Dessert

最後に, before we begin shorting, we need to talk about your stop loss. It’s important to put your stop loss above the higher red line and not the blue line. This way, even if the massive short selling we’re counting on doesn’t occur, you won’t be thrown out of the trade. If the pair resumes its old slower trend you could still make a profit, albeit at the much slower pace.

As I like to point out, nothing is guaranteed and many times vertical shorts don’t show clear signs. But if they do, you should know how to take advantage of them.

How to Trade a Rate Decision?

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Most traders, when hearing the combination of trading and rate decision, have an immediate reaction. That is to avoid, avoid and one more time, avoid the situation.

If you are used to trading on technical indicators, then like most traders, a rate decision becomes your worst enemy. It’s a macro event that has deep fundamental connotations.

It can hit you like a black swan, and there is no technical indicator that can help you with that. だから, the best idea would be to disengage, 右? まあ, not exactly. Here are a few tricks that I use that can step up your game on trading interest rates.

A Rate Decision is a Game of Chance

The first thing you have to realize with rate decisions (と, もちろんです, I mean a Fed rate decision) is that it’s completely a game of chance.

No one really knows what will happen. And no indicator in the world can tell you with complete certainty what will happen. But you can have a good indication of what is expected and the market’s possible reaction. And that, 本当に, is just enough. But unlike the conventional wisdom, the trick to playing this information is to go against the mainstream.

If a market is certain something is going to happen, in this case a rate hike, then it’s already positioned for it. That means your upside is high.

What if the market is caught off guard and gets a decision it didn’t expect? You could be drowned by a tsunami of traders is deep fear, eager to get out of their position.

だから, if you went against the market consensus and bet on a rate hike it would have played out in one of two ways. If you were wrong, you’d think, oh well, it was already priced in. It was expected and your loss is minimal because the market was prepared for that decision.

本質的に, the move already took place, before you opened your trade. But if you were right and the consensus was wrong? There would be a tsunami, もちろんです, but you would have been on top of it, potentially gaining big. 他の言葉で, you risked little for a potential big gain, a classic risk reward trading bet.

Your Tool Box

When it comes to rate decisions by the Fed, CME has the ultimate tool called FedWatch. The FedWatch essentially created a probability gauge for a Fed rate hike within a specific month. Let’s look at the probability level for a rate hike for September.

[はい], that’s the one where the Fed did ない make a move. あなたが見ることができます。, the FedWatch tool indicated a 25% chance for a rate hike. That also means a 75% probability of no change. 今のところ, as you can see in the chart below, as soon as the Fed announced its decision the Dollar index fell. But it fell by roughly 100 ピップ, hardly a hefty sell off.

Rate Decision

ソース: CME

実際, support levels weren’t even broken at the time this article was written. Meaning? If you had taken the other side of the market consensus (with the 25% chance), you got it wrong. 最後に, you got hit by 100 pips–ultimately, no big deal.

But what if the Fed had made a move? あなたが見ることができます。, the Dollar index was already close to its support levels. That means that traders were skeptical.

A fulfillment of the 25% chance would have caught the market off guard and would have resulted in a panic rally of the Dollar index. Get the idea? Of course this is relevant for all FX pairs related to the dollar such as the EUR\USD or the USD\JPY.

Rate Decision

ソース : Netdania

When It’s Not Worth It?

もちろんです, there are situations where it’s not worth it to engage. たとえば, if we move forward to January 16, you can see the market is pricing in a near 50/50 chance that the Fed will make a move. That means the market is not sure.

That means that Dollar index, or even any other Dollar pair, might swing either way. And that means it’s impossible to make an educated guess.

But what if the chances of a rate hike were higher than 60% and the Dollar was closer to its highs? A decision not to raise rates would have caught the market off guard. For a trader, it might have been wise to take a short position before the decision. もちろんです, there are many more layers and nuances that can be added which I will cover at another time.

Rate Desicion

ソース: CME

結論としては, there are no guarantees in life. But if you’ve ever wondered if you can step up your game on trading a rate decision, now you’ve got my two cents.

Spotting the next FX Swing

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When trading in FX, scouting for just the right currency pair can be time consuming. もちろんです, you’re looking for the pair on the verge of producing the next lucrative trade. Many times it’s hard to decide which pair is the one with the most momentum.

And even if you do invest all your time homing in on the “right” pair, you just might get it wrong. Getting wrong means you’ll ride on a trend that’s barely moving. 幸いにも, there are some rules of thumb to help guide you to those pairs that will generate the big swing you’re waiting for.

FX Risk On/Off

The first rule of thumb for FX pairs with big swings is to ensure that the two currencies belong to opposite groups. たとえば, one of the most popular divisions between FX pairs is between risk on and risk off currencies. Risk off currencies tend to rise when investors are “jittery;” prominent members of that group are the USD and JPY. 反対に, risk on currencies tend to rise when investors’ appetite for risk has been whetted. Risk on currencies include the Aussie, the Kiwi, the Euro and most exotic pairs.

When you pick an FX pair which has currencies from opposing groups it has a greater chance of generating a big swing. That’s because you tend to get a dual movement. It’s not one currency which rises against the other it’s that one is rising while the other is falling. That divergence makes the pair’s fluctuation larger and therefore the potential could likewise be larger.

Let me give you an example as to how to put this particular rule of thumb to good use. Back in May 2014, when fears over the Eurozone surged, it was a classic risk on trade scenario. Selling the EUR/USD was one of the most lucrative FX trends since the Dollar was gaining and the Euro was losing. That created a much bigger fluctuation for the pair than it did for, 言う, the EUR/GBP or EUR/AUD. In those cases, both sides of the equation had currencies from the same groups that were losing value.

This rule of thumb is rather easy to spot. Is Russia in trouble? Good! The Russian Ruble is a classic risk on and it will be hit hard while the Dollar is most likely to gain. Thus your weapon of choice should be USD/RUB long which would gain the most.

The Broken Sideways

Another rule of thumb you can use is an FX pair with a broken range. One of the most noticeable things about an FX pair that trades sideways is that it stretches like a coil. The longer the pair trades sideways the stronger the burst of momentum will be upon a break. だから, if you spot an FX pair that’s been on a sideways trend for long, keep an eye on it. When the break does eventually occur the swing could be lucrative.

Mean Reversion

Our last rule of thumb is basically to look for an FX pair that’s hit its maximal range. We’re talking either a triple top or a double bottom or some such other indicator. Any or all of those indicators could suggest that the latest trend has reached its climax. The reversal which comes in the aftermath usually is rather significant. There are numerous ways to identify a mean reversion, which we elaborated on in past 記事. The key here is that once you identify it, as with the other rules of thumb, it raises the chance of generating a bigger swing.

結論として

もちろんです, even following all of those rules of thumb can’t guarantee a gain. These rules, by their very nature, are meant to simplify things. And as we all know FX trading has many more layers, including risk which should always be taken into account. But there are many FX traders for whom these rules of thumb are especially valuable. たとえば, for those of you who find it a challenge to spot the right FX pair to focus on. Or for those who, often times, become frustrated by choosing the wrong FX pair to trade.

あなたのための戦略を準備します 2016

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と 2016 newly upon us, it’s time to start preparing this year’s trading strategy. 今のところ, 2015年の戦略はあなたのためによく働いた場合, あなたは、2016年代にもなることを前提としていかもしれません. 間違いはあり得ないしましょう, これは ない 戦略を構築するための実用的な相. 代わりに, これは、次のレベルへの戦略的なアプローチを取ります. You need to learn how to best use this trading strategy.

I like to advocate that you should treat your trading as a business. So would you be considering running your business without a strategy? もちろんです, あたは〜しないだろう. あなたがターゲットなしでビジネスを実行します? まさにそう思っていました. それは準備するだけで常識です 2016 あなたの取引のビジネスのための戦略. そして、それはあなたが取引するかどうかにかかわらず、です $100 または $1,000,000.

戦略ステップ 1: ボラティリティをマップ

これは、取引戦略は、あなたのスタイルに合わせなければならないことは言うまでもないです. あなたは、一つの信号または倍数を使用することができます, 短期または長期, 両方のまたはそれらの組み合わせ. あなたが決めることは完全にあなた次第です. 何です ない あなたまでのボラティリティであります. もちろんです, その性質上, 市場のボラティリティは、時間の経過とともに変化します. あなたが事前に計画する必要があります. それ以外の場合, あなたがあまりにも高レバレッジで取引している場合、あなた自身があなたのストップロスを打つかもしれません.

あまり脅迫に聞こえるかもしれないが、圧倒されるされている別のリスクもあります, それにもかかわらず. あなたがダウンして来ていた揮発性を実現するために失敗し、少しレバレッジとの長期的な貿易に飛び込みました. あなたは今年の終わりに近づくとそれが唯一の差益が生じました.

どちらも、歓迎されないシナリオであります, 残念なことに, 完全に回避することができません. しかし, 生じるそれらの可能性を低くすることができ. そして、あなたはどのようにしていることだろう? ボラティリティをグラフ化しようとしていることにより、 2016.

ここではそれについて移動する方法です:

我々は一般的にEUR / USDを取引しましょう. その後、, の前に 2016, 私たちは、ペアのボラティリティが向かっている可能性がある場所をグラフ化してみる必要があります.

以下は、私たちが見ることができます CBOE EUVIX, ユーロのVIXインジケータ (これは、我々は以前の記事で説明してきました). 私たちが見ることができる過去にEUVIXかけて行くこととの間の変曲点が存在します 2014 と 2015. それがどこでした, 初めて, ボラティリティ 落下停止. すなわち、揮発性が上昇するように設定されていることを示唆しています. あなたが見ることができるようにボラティリティの急落は、5年周期にされています. とすれば, 我々は、少なくとも最も近い年は組のために揮発性であると仮定することができます.

戦略

ソース: CBOE

しかし, ボラティリティ・チャートは、より多くの範囲バウンドに見える場合, 例えば間の 10 と 30, 最も簡単な方法は、確率を計算することであろう. 範囲はからのものである場合 10 宛先 30 我々はにありました 20, 高い揮発性および低い揮発性の可能性があります 50/50. 我々はにいた場合 25, チャンスはボラティリティが降りてくる可能性があることも大きいだろう.

これはあなたに何を意味します?

だから, あなたの戦略の面で, あなたはこの情報を使用して何を行う可能性? ここで考慮すべき点がいくつかあります.

ボラティリティが上昇する程度であれば

あなたは両方の短期および長期の取引している場合, 高揮発性環境はより長い時間を支持します, すなわち. スイングトレード. だから、あなたのためのオプションだ場合, このような戦略に焦点を当てます.

あなたは短期的にはより多くの取引している場合, 低いレバレッジを取るために準備さと範囲の一定の休憩のために. 他の言葉で, レンジ取引がより信頼性の高い信頼性が低いと運動量の取引になります.

ボラティリティは秋しようとしている場合

小さな範囲に限定される範囲戦略や戦略に集中してみてください. スイングトレードを好むビッグスイングが発生する可能性が低いです.

戦略ステップ 2: サイクルの地図

あなたの戦略は、よりスイングトレードや短期的に向かって傾いているかどうかは関係ありません. それでも長期サイクルを識別し、その周期内での位相を決定することができなければなりません.

ここでは、私たちの戦略にサイクルをマッピングから離れて取ることができるいくつかの例を示します。.

我々は長期的EUR / USDサイクルが弱気であるという結論に来ているとしましょう. Since it’s about to hit a multi-year low that momentum could end soon. 我々はスイングトレーダーであれば、私たちは強気の戦略を準備することになります. 我々はまだ短いながら今年半ばにそれを実装する準備ができていると思います.

我々は短期トレーダーであれば、我々は残りのサイクルのためのモメンタム戦略に数えるだろう. その後、我々は今年半ばに強気勢い戦略に銀行に準備ができて取得したいです.

スイングや短期トレーダーは、我々は弱気のサイクルが耐えるだろうと結論として言います. その場合, 我々は、これらの弱気戦略に依存し続けるだろう.

戦略ステップ3: それをすべてクランチ

私たちは、サイクルと予想ボラティリティの両方をマッピングしました. 今、私たちは利益のために我々のチャンスを最適化するために、当社の取引戦略を実装する方法を正確に決定することができます. 我々はボラティリティが落ちることを期待するとサイクルが終了した場合には、バインドされた範囲のための時間です. 我々はボラティリティが上昇すると弱気のサイクルが終了すると予想される場合、我々は鋭い年半ばのリバウンドを期待するかもしれません. その後、我々はそれに応じて調整することができます.

ボトムライン

あなたはあなたの戦略をテストし、使用するかを決める始める前に, あなたが最初に何を期待する決定する必要があります. だから, として 2016 アプローチ, 私はあなたに私の2セントを与えてみましょう. あなたが最適化する前に、使用する戦略の種類を最適化するために準備して 取引戦略 自分自身.

空売りビギナーズガイド

によって 10 コメント

空売りは簡単です。, 右? 基本的には, それは買いと同じです, 他の道を行くだけ. ショートパンツを議論する際に少なくとも共通の信念であると思われます.

実習では, ショートポジションを取ることはかなり簡単です. しかし, それは実際の戦略に来るとき、それはまた全く違います. ため、, 好むと好まざるとにかかわらず, ショートパンツは、ミラーlong型を行います, 絶対に、完全に. そして、本当に良い短い売り手であることを, あなたは違いを知っている必要があります. また、それに向けて具体的にあなたの戦略を最適化する方法を知っている必要があります.

空売りは、恐怖ベースです

楽器あなたが下に移動を取引しているときに空売りあなたが得るとき. それはあなたが長い間しているときとは正反対です, または買主. そして、それは長く買いと空売りの端部との間のどこに類似点です. あなたが参照してください。, トレーダーは、購入またはそれらが明るくなりますその楽器の見通しを賭けている何かに長くなったとき. そして楽器は重要ではありません。, それは株式のか, もしくは商品, S様、あるいはインデックス&P500.

サイドノートとして、, しかし, 同じステータスの通貨があるとき外国為替の場合とは少し異なり、. たとえば, ペアはドルと円で構成されていると言います, これは両方の安全な避難所があります. しかし、それは言うことになるとEUR / USD, EUR / JPYまたはGBP / USD, これらのペアのショートパンツは、まだ恐怖によって駆動されます.

しかし、トレーダーが販売するとき? 今のところ, ニュアンスに気づきます, それは空売りではありません, すなわち. 落下価格からお金を稼ぎます, 実際の販売. トレーダーがポジションを販売しているとき、彼または彼女はお金を失うことへの恐怖からそれをやっています. その販売が利益を取るか、損失をトリミングされている場合、それは問題ではありません。, それはまだ恐怖によって駆動さです. あなたが短い販売しているとき、あなたは基本的には恐怖から利益をしようとしています.

恐れ, しかし, 楽観主義とは異なる動作します. あなたが参照してください。, 恐怖が来て、すぐに行く傾向にあります. あなたは、捕食者から実行している投資家の殺到に例えることができます.

それは憶測ではありません; それは、データの年に裏打ちされた事実です. 以下のチャートで過酷な空売りのイベントのいくつかを見てみましょう. あなたは明らかに利益が以上にかかったことがわかります 8 ヶ月も経たないうちに全滅し、達成するために 4 ヶ月.

Short selling

ソース: esignal

なぜ短い売り手としてあなたにすることが重要です? それはショートパンツの正確な性質を明らかにしているため; 迅速かつ突然の. よう, このような動きを保証戦略はそれに応じて設計する必要があります. 他の言葉で, 迅速な利益のために迅速かつ急激な勢いに乗るために構築され、その後閉じ. 真, 突然の移動が高いがあります, 同様に, 運動量の闘争に一致. それはで成功するために運命づけされている場合は運動量は、すべての空売り戦略のDNAであるべきである「長期的。 "

ショート売主のためのスターターキット

成功した投資家になるためには高運動量短期間の貿易のための準備ができなければなりません. そしてもちろん、, それはあなたがトレード間隔にすべての相対です. ここでは、固体短い感を得るのを助けるためにいくつかの基本的な考え方とツールがあります.

トレンド枯渇: あなたが長期の強気トレンドを持っているときに傾向がレンガの壁に当たるポイントが来ます. バイヤーがちょうど来て停止し、ペアは抵抗を打ちます. すぐ後に, すでに位置を保持するものでは傾向が逆転され恐れます. 彼らはすぐに上から強制的に短いことになる彼らのポジションを清算する.

そこトレンドの枯渇を識別するために無数の方法があるが、ここではかなり単純なものです.

あなたは、以下のグラフに見ることができるように, この場合には株価はパロアルトと呼ばれます, hit the top point of 200. But only when it fell back to 190 それはかなり迅速かつ急に下に移動すると述べられ. 次に何が起こったのトレンドラインが簡単に壊れていたということでした. しかし、そこに別の、より重要な要素はここにあり、それは以下のMACDです. トレンドが上昇した場合の補正に先立つヒストグラムの棒ではなく、中程度でした. 比較して, 短いがあったときに、他の方向に作成されたものを見て.

Short Selling

ソース: esignal

それは明らかに恐怖の周りがあることを示します 190 迅速な売りを誘発しています. 傾向はより低い向かう前に、少なくとも2回の試行を有していなければなりません. このように, それは明らかだ別の試みは破るためになされなければならないこと 190.

私たちがすでに知っているので、我々は短いを期待することができ、この点の周りのおそれがあります. 私たちは首に達すると, 売りが最後の時間を始めた時点, それが短いため、当社のエントリポイントです. こと, もちろんです, その後すぐにクローズする必要があります。.

買われ過ぎ: ペアが買わあるときにショートして恐怖を活用する別の基本戦略は、. もう 1 回お願いします, そこにこので取引するための多数の経路及び方法があるが、ここでは単純なものです. EUR / USDを見て私たちの例のように、私たちは二つのものを探す必要があります. ペアは、一方では価格チャネルの上閉じ、RSIは、他に買わレベルである場合, ペアが買われ過ぎです. それは突然の短絡が始まろうとしていることを意味します.

Short Selling

ソース: esignal

非農業部門雇用者数の取引のためのヒント

によって 12 コメント

毎月の最初の金曜日に米労働省の雇用報告書を問題します。. その他労働関連データの中で, そのレポートに新しい民間部門の米国ベースのジョブの数は、します。. 、 非営利団体, それはまた時々 呼ばれるように, いくつかの経済指標の一つは、デイト レーダー、および投資家を鋭く見て.

通常, とき、 非農業部門雇用者数 見積もりを打つ, それはドルのプラスになる傾向があります。. ショートのための機会, その後、, ユーロ/米ドル、ポンド/ドルなどのペアに作成されます。, カウンター通貨、ドルはどこ. 整数のための機会は、ドルが主要通貨ペアで作成されます。, 米ドル/日本円のような.

簡単そうに聞こえます, 右? さてここで問題です。. 非農業部門雇用者数は予測困難な指標の一つ. それは難しい戦略を選択する 1 日平均トレーダーのため, 弱気や強気, 図をリリースする前に. この記事で, あなたのおかげでバランスを傾けるを取引の雇用のための私のヒントを共有するよ.

非営利団体に関してください。, トレーダーのようだと思う

最大の過ちトレーダーはこの特定の取引戦略を作り上げ、経済学者のように考えを行うことができます。. 非農業部門雇用者数の論理図を予測する傾向があるほとんどのエコノミスト, 数学シリーズ, 前の番号から継続とほぼ同じ. しかし、現実の生活で, それはかなりその方法は動作しません.

下のグラフから見ることができます。, コンセンサスは、実際雇用図が変動する傾向がある間を直線的に移動する傾向があります。. それは身近などの? それが必要; それは非常に典型的な FX ペアのような.

非農業部門雇用者数

だから, もつれるので複雑な統計分析ではなく, 明らかであること. トレーダーだろう方法を考えることは; 支持と抵抗の線を描く.

下図のよう, 私は単に上と下のサポートおよび抵抗線を描かれています。. 実際の雇用支援に当たったとき, 以下のリリースでコンセンサスをビートすることが期待できます。. 非農業部門雇用者数が抵抗のレベルを打つとき, 下の見積もり来て、今後レポートを期待することができます。.

非農業部門雇用者数

非農業部門雇用者数: 取引戦略の設計

今雇用の向かって感覚を持っていること, 取引戦略を設計する時間です。. 単純な部分であります。. ビートに雇用を期待する場合, 場所に弱気トレードをしてください。. ユーロ/米ドルなどのペアにインストール必要が, ポンド/ドルやドルは第 2 ペア. リリース前にエントリに抵抗のレベルを見て、弱気の目標値を設定.

ドルが米ドル/円、米ドル/スイスフランのような主をペアで, それは正確な反対. 代わりに, 強気の戦略に向けてギアアップしてだろう.

破裂音クイズ: 欠場する非営利団体を期待している場合あなたの取引戦略とは? うん; あなたはそれを得た. ドルはセカンダリのペアを取引する際、強気の戦略を備える必要があります。. と, もちろんです, それはドルがプライマリのペアの逆です。.

考慮すべきいくつかのポイント

開始する前に, たい雇用を取引する前に考慮するいくつかの点があります。.

貿易意味を成してください。? 非営利団体は特定の方法に行くという結論に来ていると言う. あなたはかなり特定方法としてあなたの貿易に影響を与えると. 確認する必要があります他のすべての指標, すなわち. サポート/レジスタンス ・買い/売り信号, ありますか. ちょうど購入または売却する驚きやミスを期待するのでしないでください。. 貿易は意味をなさない、します。.

危機の非営利団体の中には予測することは不可能: グラフの左側に見ることができます。, 揮発性の非常に多くがあります。. 経済危機の中, 雇用はしばしばあなたが単にサポート/レジスタンス バンドに依存できないことを激しくスイングします。.

非農業部門雇用者数は、ボラティリティを生成します。: ボラティリティについてもう少しお話しましょう; それを覚悟する必要があります。. 準備なし, あなたは正しい場合でも, あなたはまだあなたのストップロスを打つを終わる可能性. 一般的に増加ボラティリティがあるとき大きなミスや壮大なビートが発生しました。. あなたの停止損失および適切かつ迅速に取引戦略を調整する必要があります。.

Do you want to create your own NFP chart? You can download the data directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Lior created his chart in Excel using the numbers provided.