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バイナリーオプション取引入門, 第一部

2 月 17, 2015 によって エディ ・花 8 コメント

What are binary options, and why are they so popular?

In the world of finance and trading, 、 binary option, also sometimes called a “digital option,” is a cash-settled, European-style option that can be exercised only on the expiration date. There are only two possible outcomes: The payoff is all or nothing, それ故に名前.

Unlike the older generation of options whose expirations might lead to unpredictable outcomes upon expiration, the purchaser of a binary option receives a predetermined amount; likewise, an out-of-the-money option expires worthless.

だから, those who trade binary options receive a predetermined amount of cash if the option expires “in the money.” For this and other reasons, online binary options trading has become enormously popular.

Binary options have gained acceptance among a wide range of traders. They’re popular with both institutional investors and traders on the exchange floor, as well as independent “prop traders” working online with forex.

Why trade binary options?

Less sensitive to market conditions

The traditional financial markets have been recovering very slowly from the sluggish worldwide economy, yet the newest generation of forex and binary options trading platforms have allowed savvy traders to trade continuously – even while equities and other investments have lagged behind.

For agile independent traders, binary options may lead to more opportunities, often many more than those through spot forex trading alone.

Quick turnaround

The quick turnaround in expiration dates allows traders to bridge multiple markets in real time, so binary options offer a way to be active worldwide markets through 24/7 online trading. Traders can quickly use their account equity by using mobile trading tools to access the marketplace.

binary options

 

Manageable risk — Predetermined profits & losses

Although any form of investment or speculation can be risky, many traders, especially those focused on forex trading, have been attracted to binary options trading because the possible downside to any given trade is completely known beforehand. Unlike commodities or other derivatives in which the holder may be exposed to unlimited risk, the maximum risk with binary options is known in advance.

One major benefit is the trader’s ability to fix the amount of potential loss (and gain) at the start of the trade. The combination of known returns and lowered risk compared to spot forex trading or old-style options trading has led many of those traders to switch to binary options.

Simplicity, accessibility & affordability

Put simply, a binary option trade represents the trader’s belief that the price of the underlying market will rise or fall by the time of expiration of the option. 対照的に, the older generation of options requires a clear idea of the magnitude of the anticipated market move as well as its direction.

To trade binary options successfully, a trader needs only to have an idea of the direction of the price of the underlying market over a fixed period of time. その後、, buy or sell accordingly.

Accessibility is the key to success for binary options traders – For traders who rely on mobile trading access such as for Android iPhone forex trading and other online platforms, the accessibility of binary options means that business professionals in any niche, even medicine and law and other busy professions, can trade profitably at their own convenience, almost any time of day or night.

Affordability is another reason why binary traders participate in this market. Traders with limited resources who begin trading binaries have reported significant gains, and many small, independent traders are able to economically build their own trading businesses part-time, while continuing in other careers as well.

以下の下でファイルさ: 外国為替市場のしくみ? タグが付いて: binaries, binary, binary options, 外国為替

Should you start a forex broker?

1 月 22, 2015 によって ショーンオバートン 4 コメント

A friend of mine in Ireland was absolutely convinced that I should set out and start my own forex brokerage. Don’t you just buy a MetaTrader license and the money starts rolling in?

Photo credit: taxcredits.net/

Photo credit: taxcredits.net

Instead of trying to persuade him why I wasn’t in a position to succeed, I told him a few stories about people that have done well opening their own forex broker.

Who succeeds as a forex broker?

Some of the most successful brokerage owners are immigrants to English speaking countries like the US, Ireland or Australia. They’ve started businesses before and have done well for themselves. Most of these immigrant entrepreneurs have a large number of family members back home that are eager and willing to help launch a new venture.

I put together a few entrepreneur profiles to show who tends to do well in this type of business.

The local option

Hinh left Vietnam in the early 1990s for better opportunities in Canada. He’s done well for himself operating a local restaurant chain. Although he’s been gone for 20 年, he regularly travels to Vietnam to visit uncles and cousins.

His relatives recently started trading forex and sensed a business opportunity. There are almost no brokerages in the country with a local office. Nobody feels really comfortable with the current options out there, but where else can they trade?

The cousins and their sons have been introducing a few accounts to the major brokerages but feel like they’d do a lot better keeping everything in house. Maybe Hinh could put up the seed money to start a new business that can cater to local needs?

The cousins start running seminars for their friends and neighbors about forex. People like the idea of managing their own investments and open their accounts based on the trust and relationships they’ve built with Hinh’s extended family.

The specialist firm

Thomas is a British investor living in Portugal with his Russian wife Anna. He’s been dabbling in the forex market as for five years. It’s only recently that he feels like his investment abilities are put to better use in currencies than shares.

If he were to raise funds for investment in the stock market, he’d spend a king’s ransom before he was legally permitted to earn a penny. Focusing on FX allows him to raise money from around the world with significantly less money up front.

He also knows that his reputation is on the line, so he doesn’t want to pick a firm out of thin air. Thomas believes he’ll do far better running everything entirely on his own.

He starts a broker and, largely on a hunch, decides to target Russia, South Africa and Mexico. Partly from two decades of international travel and partly due to luck, Mexico happens to be a market that’s very receptive to managed funds products.

Thomas has a background in marketing and sales, allowing him to identify high net worth investors quickly. After making a few business trips between Portugal and Mexico, he lands the accounts that he needs. As he establishes himself over the next two years, his brand becomes associated with quality managed accounts and trust with larger deposits.

Why forex and what’s my competitive advantage?

Immigrant entrepreneurs do well with forex due to the underdevelopment of their home countries. Consider the example of Hinh from Vietnam. The local stock market is not noteworthy. There’s no such thing as an IRA account or municipal bonds that you go buy for your retirement account.

People with savings need to put that money to work. Running a global forex brokerage offers that capital an outlet to international markets. It doesn’t really have anywhere else to go.

At the moment, there’s not a lot of competition in these emerging markets for local brokers that build relationships on a person to person level. Running Google Ads and the usual online marketing tactics are saturated.

Google adwords

The one way in which the FXCMs and Saxo Banks of the world cannot compete is on personal relationships. If you or your family members are good at networking and can show new traders how to succeed in the market, you have an edge that is difficult to compete against.

What you might see as your disadvantage, being a new broker in the market, is actually one of your biggest strengths. You’re not yet worth competing against. That will undoubtedly change in a few years as the idea of forex establishes itself in frontier markets.

Assuming that you succeed in your home country, the global nature of the market gives you worldwide opportunities for expansion. It’s common for someone to incorporate in Spain, run their operations from India and run a sales team in the Philippines.

An enormous percentage of internet users know some degree of English, at least enough to open and maintain a forex account. The barriers to trading are also fairly low; anyone with a cell phone and basic English can manage a trading account. The presence of a common language allows brokers to expand and run their operations where time zones and costs present an advantage.

The best candidates for launching a broker are IBs with a substantial client base. They usually run in-person classes, manage money or have a substantial internet presence. It’s not all necessary to be great at everything. Most start up brokerages find a niche within the trading community and use that as a base to build from.

How much money do I need to invest to be successful?

A forex brokerage is a financial institution. If you’re going to do start a brokerage and expect to do well, an investment of $100,000 is a reasonable starting point. That amount of money should cover the following:

  • Incorporation and initial legal compliance costs
  • Technology setup and maintenance costs for the first year
  • A sufficient marketing budget to open new accounts
  • Staffing to run the operation 24 日時間, 5 days a week

Like any new venture, some businesses do well and others don’t. According to Erich Grant, head of the Start A Broker (SAB) program at Shift Forex, the brokers that thrive tend to turn a profit within the first 6 ヶ月.

Given the risk involved, it’s important to identify your personal advantages and whether the potential opportunity is large enough to justify the risk. 電子メール info@onestepremoved.com to learn more details on starting your own FX broker.

以下の下でファイルさ: 外国為替市場のしくみ? タグが付いて: ブローカー, 外国為替, incoporation, Shift Forex, technology

フリーブローアップ保険?

1 月 19, 2015 によって ショーンオバートン 17 コメント

ホームEURCHFペグハンマーで崩壊不快真実と先週のドラマ: you can lose more in your account than you deposit.

Trading on leverage is inherently dangerous. Although an instant 20% move in a major currency is a once in a lifetime event, it goes to show just how quickly the markets can charge over alleged safety features.

Did placing a stop loss at 1.19 for an open EURCHF trade do any good last week? Not a bit! As soon as the market breached 1.20, it instantly gapped down 10%.

When markets go bidless, it means that there is no liqudity in the market. That’s jargon that means everyone is too scared to do any buying or selling. There literally is no price at the moment where anyone is willing to trade.

It was at 1.20. The next thing you see is 1.08 and the price falling fast.

I was fortunate enough to be awake at 3 午前. when the proverbial cow-pie hit the fan. Although I’m an alogrithmic trader, I confess that my immediate instinct was to hop on the bandwagon and buy!, 購入します。!, BUY! all the Swiss francs that I could handle (when you go short EURCHF, you’re selling euros and buying francs).

Every inch of my body wants to go short with the $EURCHF collapse, but I run an algo system and I’m sticking to it.

— OneStepRemoved.com (@_OneStepRemoved) 1 月 15, 2015

The way I coped with the urge was to IM a friend and pass a running commentary on the insanity. Posting on Facebook and Twitter also kept me busy. 基本的には, it was a strategy to keep myself wholly occupied and distracted so that I wouldn’t be tempted to jump in.

I’ve seen mega moves before and, more importantly, I know from experience how badly people can get hurt. My favorite war story from working as a broker was a wealthy client in Kuwait that opened an account with $250,000 the night before NFP. He went long on 100:1 leverage and of course the report was the complete opposite of expectations. The market gapped instantly and before his trade could close, his account balance was -$20,000.

You don’t read stories like this on the forums because… who on earth wants to go advertise their financial destruction on the internet? It’s embarrassing and, if we’re honest with ourselves, that person is probably doing everything humanly possible to not think about their situation.

raised hands

Nobody raised their hand to tell me about catastrophic losses in the CHF

 

Free insurance

The primary reason to trade with 最大レバレッジ is because it’s like free insurance against devastating losses. You never know when a peg will go bust or the next 9/11 is going to happen.

Let’s game this out. You were long USDCHF on Thursday and there was no stop loss in the world that could protect you against an instant 10% ギャップ. Consider two scenarios:

  • You had a $30,000 account balance and were trading an institutional level of leverage like 5:1. That means your position value was 30k * 5 = $150,000. The instant gap created a loss of 10% * $150,000 = $15,000.
  • You had a $3,000 account and were trading the “crazy” leverage of 50:1. The position value was also $150,000 and yields a $15,000 損失.

Now let’s talk about what happens in the real world. In the first sceario, the money is on deposit with the broker and you 100% have lost $15,000. It’s a guaranteed fact and you can safely kiss the money goodbye.

2 番目のシナリオ, you may legally owe the broker $12,000 (3k-15k=-12k). しかし, what is the broker’s likelihood of recovering the money? If you’re in the UK and you trade at Pepperstone in Australia, they’d have to sue you in an Australian court. The attorney’s fees alone would be several thousand dollars. And most convincingly, you probably don’t have any assets that the court could award to the broker.

Even if you are in Australia, think about all the bad PR hitting the forums when the big dog starts suing little retail traders. There’s almost no business-case for pursuing the negative balances of retail forex traders.

You’re going to see a lot of hooplah this week about brokers “forgiving negative balances.” It’s great PR and it’s the best way for them to play it. They know darn well that there’s almost no chance of recovering that money. It’s the best way to turn lemons into lemonade because the brokers lost an epic amount of money.

How to protect yourself

Chris ジマー, the programmer here at OneStepRemoved, sent me this as soon as the day ended.

I was already on board with it but this recent event makes your method of pulling money out of FX accounts look very obvious.

I just checked and the USDCHF dropped over 1600 pips on that bar. That really hits close to home as we could have easily been Long that pair and something tells me any stop would not have been filled.

Trade on leverage and, for goodness sake, withdraw the money at regular intervals. Nobody can take it away if you don’t keep it in their hands.

以下の下でファイルさ: 外国為替市場のしくみ?, 現在の市場で起きていること? タグが付いて: eurchf, 外国為替, フラン, レバレッジ, 最大レバレッジ, usdchf

あなたのブローカーは今朝破産しました?

1 月 16, 2015 によって ショーンオバートン 6 コメント

これは、外国為替市場での絶対的な大虐殺です. The tide’s gone out and it’s now very apparent who has good risk management systems in place and who was reckless safeguarding your deposits.

Is your broker on this list?

  • アルパリ – 倒産!
  • FXCM – took an enormous $225,000,000 loss on clients with negative balances. It’s desperately seeking a bailout.
  • EXCEL Markets – 倒産!
FX brokers get slaughtered

FX brokers are led to the slaughterhouse.

One of first articles that I send traders on the free EAs list is how to protect yourself from a forex broker bankruptcy. It’s absolutely, critically important where you decide to trade.

I trade at Peppertsone と I strongly recommend that you trade at Pepperstone, あまりにも. They made it through this crisis unscathed. They’re well regulated. They’re in a safe and stable banking jurisdiction. と… they’re still running a thriving business.

PS: QB Pro made it through the CHF chaos unscathed. We closed out with a nice profit yesterday.

以下の下でファイルさ: 現在の市場で起きていること? タグが付いて: アルパリ, 倒産, EXCEL Markets, 外国為替, 外国為替ブローカー, FXCM, Pepperstone

月曜日の朝 quarterbacking の重要性

12 月 28, 2014 によって エディ ・花 Leave a Comment

プロップト レーダーとして獲得する方法について、このシリーズに記載されている以前の記事として, managing your forex business like a prop trading shop increases your chances of winning. Successful prop traders use maximum leverage with limited account size, and they pull profits regularly to limit risk in case of a trading system “blow up” resulting in a steep account drawdown.

Monday-morning quarterback wins the game

According to many traders, a trading system’s performance never stays the same: either it improves, or it becomes worse, perhaps even “blowing up.” Although Monday-morning quarterback is often derided for criticizing or suggesting alternative courses of action in hindsight 後 an event, performance review is critically important for trading success going forward.

Critical review of previous trades and system performance means the difference between success and failure for prop traders, especially for those who are responsible for leveraging other investors’ capital.

Independent traders must evolve by ruthlessly facing and correcting their shortcomings, or become extinct by losing their trading capital.

と, beyond remedying the causes of losing trades, Monday-morning quarterbacking also works to examine and highlight the winning characteristics of particular trades. Shaun and other successful prop traders look beyond the emotion of the trading moment to make sure that subsequent trades are even better.

System review and human review

If you’re trading manually with discretion, think about what you could do differently in order to help you focus and perform better, with less stress and more discipline in your decision-making protocols.

If you’re trading with a mechanical system, think about whether the performance of your live account matches the expected results from your back-tests during the same time frames. そうでない場合, find out the reasons for the discrepancies, and you’ll earn more money as a trader.

Ask the difficult questions early, avoid the errors later

As a mechanical trader, you should also plan ahead to avoid or quickly adapt to any negative situation or market scenario that might cause your system to fail, even temporarily.

By thinking carefully about previous trading glitches and losses in search of valuable lessons, you’ll be able to minimize the impact of those events if they occur in the future.

Prop traders thrive with the right tools

Prop traders can thrive with the right performance-enhancing tools, especially when using trading systems built and managed by experts. The first step toward successful prop trading is to ask the difficult questions about current performance, and then fully address all issues that are discovered during the critical review.

以下の下でファイルさ: 戦略の取引のアイデア タグが付いて: 外国為替, Monday morning quarterbacking, 取引を支える

ショーンの推奨される外国為替ブローカー

10 月 21, 2014 によって ショーンオバートン 99 コメント

外国為替ブローカーを探しているときに依頼する必要が唯一の 3 つの質問があります。:

  1. あなたは私に低手数料とスプレッドで優れた実行を与えるつもり?
  2. 内でバックアップする私のお金を送るつもりが 24 時間?
  3. あなたは、近い将来倒産する可能性が?

場合は、ブローカーは、それらのボックスを刻み, 実際には商品は、ブローカーを選ぶ. 分析や最新のトレンディなツール私は市場を必要としません。. 私は外国為替を取引して唯一の理由は、できるだけ早くできるだけ多くのお金を稼ぐには (それを維持するには) .

あまりにも多くのブローカー腹を行っています。. 人を信頼して、最良の取引を提供していますについて知識のある決定をするためにこのガイドでは一緒します。.

ショーンの仲介商の勧告

Pepperstone Metatrader 4 Forex Broker

Pepperstone ここで取引は、私 ライブ口座, これはすべてを言う. 私のお金はこのブローカーに今座っています。. オーウェン ・ カーに会った, CEO, 一人でダラスのオフィスで友人がいると. 私は彼らの銀行関係で非常に快適. 彼らはまた非常に競争力のある価格を提供します。.

ILQ

ILQ 大型小売店の顧客に食料調達します。 (100 mm 以上の毎月のボリュームの貿易人々) CTAs や独立したマネー マネージャー. 上層部の聴衆を意味する彼らはすぐにそれらの 3 つの重要な事柄を行う. ILQ industy で定評があり, それらとの取引の同僚の推薦に基づいて, 私は私の読者にそれを推薦快適.

MB の取引 だけを提供する米国の会社は、します。 真の ECN 小売り業のトレーダーに利用可能です. 指値注文を投稿して、最高入札または提供よりはましです。, ターミナル ウィンドウに表示されますあなたの価格. 彼らはまた、流動性リベートを提供します。, 私はの大ファン. 私はジャスティン LeBlang いくつかの年のために知られている、ライブのアカウントを開催 MB の取引 2 年間. 彼らはサポートが最高のクラスと技術、価格設定されています.

ブローカーのペテンを懸念しています? に対して自分自身を保護する方法を学ぶ 外国為替ブローカー倒産.

以下の下でファイルさ: 外国為替市場のしくみ? タグが付いて: ブローカー, 外国為替, ILQ, Pepperstone

リスク管理 – HOLDにすると決定, いつ倍

10 月 10, 2014 によって エディ ・花 5 コメント

There’s a proverb among old forex traders: If you put two newbies in front of the same trading screen and arm them with the same tools, and if each takes the opposite side of a given trade, both will probably lose money, regardless of the final direction of the price move.

まだ, if you put two highly-experienced traders into positions in opposite directions, very often both of them will win the trade or at least break even, in spite of their contradictory trading positions.

なぜ?

The difference between rookie traders and pros is risk management. In the trading game, successful risk management is the key to survival. Many beginning traders pay lip service to the idea of managing risk effectively, yet few have the discipline to follow through entirely, even with the power of mechanical trading systems.

Forex risk management

Regardless of the exact forex trading strategy or system, loss-taking is a critical component for long-term success.

Any forex newbie can exit from winning trades, but it takes an experienced trader to slip out of losing trades relatively unscathed. In this article I’ve outlined several perspectives on risk management strategies used by successful forex traders across a wide range of markets.

Forex risk management

Most forex traders have a clear idea of their own investment objectives and tolerance for risk. と, most already know that appropriate risk management is crucial for success in any form of trading.

The best trading risk management means using a standard process to identify and analyze risks, then either accepting, mitigating, or rejecting them. For traders, it comes down to finding and assessing opportunities, then quickly acting on or declining those trades.

Basic risk management is two simple steps – Discovering and determining the risks within an investment, then responding to those risks in the best possible way to meet the investment objectives.

Some risks are considered intrinsic risks, or built into the system, while other types of risks are extrinsic in origin. 任意のイベントで, forex traders have a variety of tools and metrics for assessing risks and setting parameter values. From that point onward, it’s up to the mechanical trading system to work its magic.

Mechanical risk management

Even when relying on mechanical systems, successful traders must be well disciplined and adhere to carefully-planned forex risk management and trade-exit strategies. That’s because people have a natural emotional aversion to taking trading losses, even when necessary.

Mechanical trading systems can help manage risks by better choosing and executing trades, and constantly monitoring positions. They add a layer of impartiality to lightning-fast analysis and trade execution. まだ, there is always room for human error in system design.

Speed plus reduced human oversight equals an increased possibility of trading loss. Mechanical risk management methods must be carefully vetted and tested before they’re implemented.

Most traders are closely focused on the “front end” of forex trading, それです, how to find a winning trade and enter a position at the right point. Other than basic stop-loss orders, few traders think carefully about how best to exit from the trade.

For the long-term survival of any trading system, 手動または機械かどうか, the most important issue is how and when to exit from trades. Although less glamorous than the work of crafting a winning entry strategy, the task of building a successful risk management and exit strategy is crucial for success.

Lose your bad trades as soon as possible

Most traders are already aware of the mathematical difficulty of overcoming losses – As shown in the drawdown in Table 1 以下, the more the trading-account equity is drawn down, the higher the percentage of subsequent gains required simply to break-even.

Table 1

Lose 25%, must regain 33% とんとん
Lose 50%, must gain 100% とんとん
Lose 75%, must gain 400% とんとん
Lose 90%, must gain 1000% とんとん

たとえば, after losing 50% 取引口座の株式の, the eventual winning trades would need to earn 100%, すなわち. double the account size, simply to break even. 悪化, at a 75% drawdown level, a trader would need to quadruple his or her account equity just to reach its original level.

明らかに, very few traders could achieve such a comeback. It’s far better to manage drawdowns by exiting each trade appropriately. Taking each loss at the optimal time allows the trader to stay in the game as long as possible, even after a long string of losing trades.

The runaway loss

Most traders have heard war stories about a single bad forex trade eating up days, months or even years of profits in one gulp. When a runaway loss occurs, it’s more likely the result of error in human judgment rather than from a glitch in the mechanical trading system.

通常, catastrophic losses result from poor or non-existent risk management, failure to use “hard” stop-loss orders, and multiple trades in which the losses from the average losers are greater than the gains from the average winners.

A runaway loss shows lack of discipline. Instead of becoming enchanted by the dream of scoring “one big winner,” the more prudent strategy for trader survival is to focus on avoiding big losses.

The Golden Rule of Risk Management: Position risk limit

Ironclad stop-loss orders prevent runaway losses. According to the trader’s appetite for risk, the mechanical trading system can set risk limits according to account equity, position size and other parameters, as described later in this article.

Many forex traders advocate a “Golden Rule” of risk management based on position size or position risk limit. They recommend the at-risk account equity should never be more than 1% (conservative) または 2% (liberal) on any single trade position.

From a psychological standpoint, the trader can be indifferent to the outcome of any particular trade when only one or two percent of the account equity is at stake.

と, from a mathematical perspective, it’s important to point out that by risking only 1% 宛先 2% per trade the system can lose repeatedly without approaching the drawdown levels shown in Table 1 上記.

Regardless of the mechanical forex system being used, the trader should use only speculative capital. When asked by newbie traders how much money they should use to trade a given system, one well-experienced trader recommends choosing a funding amount which if entirely lost wouldn’t affect the newbie’s sleep at night.

Risk management styles

There are two general styles of successful risk management. Some managers refer to these opposite styles as either the “home run” approach or the “singles and doubles” approach.

1 つの手, a forex trader may choose to take frequent small losses and break-evens while working to harvest all profits from the relatively few big winning trades. または, a trader may decide to seek many little gains and use infrequent but relatively large stop-losses with a system designed to accumulate the small profits and outweigh the losses.

The trading psychology is more important than the mechanical trading strategy itself. Taking many small losses tends to cause numerous painful twinges, interspersed with occasional moments of pure ecstasy.

対照的に, the “singles and doubles” risk management style offers plenty of minor joys, punctuated by some nasty psychological blows.

The best choice of trading style largely depends on the trader’s personality. A new trader will usually quickly discover which general style best fits his or her personality.

One of the major benefits of forex trading as compared with stock trading is that the forex marketplace easily accommodates both types of trading styles, using many different trading systems.

Since currency pairs trading is a spread-based marketplace, traders shouldn’t be too constrained by the number of round-trip transactions required by any given strategy.

たとえば, in the EUR-USD market, traders might find a 3-pip spread that’s the same as the cost of three one-hundredths (3/100) of one percent (1%) of an underlying position. This cost is generally uniform, in terms of percentage, regardless of whether the trader is dealing with one-million-unit lots or 100-unit lots of the same currency.

だから, if a given trading strategy required 10,000-unit lots, the amount of the spread would be $3, yet for that same trade executed only using 100-unit lots, the spread would be a tiny $0.03.

This is in sharp contrast to the stock market, where the commission on 1000 shares or 100 shares of a stock valued at, 言う, $20 might be fixed at a total commission of $40.

That means the effective commission cost for the stock-market transaction might range between 0.2% 宛先 2%, thus affecting the trader’s choice of risk management style.

Variability in commission percentages makes it difficult for small traders in the stock markets to scale into their positions because of these skewed commission costs. まだ, forex traders benefit from uniform pricing, so they can use either risk management style.

This freedom of risk management style has drawn many independent traders away from equity markets to forex markets.

4 basic types of stops

Another foundational choice to be made by forex traders based on personality and trading strategy is the type of stop to be used for risk management. There are four basic types of stops:

Equity stop

An equity stop is the simplest type of stop for mechanical trading systems. For any given trade entry, the system calculates a fixed percentage of the account equity, usually between 1% と 2%, as outlined earlier in this article.

たとえば, for a $10,000 forex account, the trader’s system could risk up to $200, or up to 200 点数, on a single mini lot (の 10,000 単位) of the EUR-USD currency pair, or up to 20 points on the standard lot with 100,000 単位.

Aggressive traders sometimes consider 5% equity stops, それです, a position risk size of not more than 5% 口座の株式の. This limit is often considered the upper limit for prudent risk management.

Recalling the equity drawdown shown in Table 1 上記, it can be seen that with a 5% equity stop 10 consecutive losing trades will cause a 50% drawdown in the trading account.

また, it should be said that the biggest drawback of using an equity stop is it enforces an arbitrary exit point based on risk management alone, instead of exiting the market as a logical response to price movements.

まだ, mechanical trading systems can thrive by using equity stops, especially when combined with other indicators to confirm trading signals.

Chart stop

Mechanical trading systems and expert advisors (EA) use a myriad of technical indicators to generate hundreds or thousands of potential stop levels. The best risk management methods combine the features of both equity stops and technical indicators to calculate chart stops.

One typical example of the chart stop is a swing high/swing low level. 下のグラフで, 、 $10,000 trading account with a mechanical system using a chart stop might sell one lot and risk 150 点数, について 1.5% of the account’s equity.

swing high low eurusd

Volatility stop

Mechanical trading systems often rely on more sophisticated logarithms to calculate risk parameters based on volatility instead of price movements alone. In any high-volatility marketplace, where prices show wide ranges, the trading system must adapt to the ambient volatility.

This helps the trader avoid being stopped out prematurely by market “noise.” And, the same holds true in low-volatility markets, where the system should constrict the risk parameters in order to avoid giving back profits before successfully exiting from positions.

One of the easiest ways to monitor volatility is by using Bollinger Bands, which rely on standard deviation calculations to measure variations in price. The two charts below illustrate high volatility and low volatility stop levels by using Bollinger Bands.

Bollinger band stops

Low volatility bollinger band stop

As seen in the first chart, a volatility stop lets the trading system employ a scale-in method in order to achieve better overall blended pricing and a quicker break-even level.

もちろんです, since total position risk shouldn’t be more than 2% of the equity in the trading account, the system choose smaller lot sizes to best fit the total position risk.

Margin stop

A margin stop is a form of risk management used by some cautious traders to reduce the risk and psychological pressure when beginning to trade an entire account by using a single new strategy or system. If used carefully, it can be effective in most markets.

Since forex markets operate twenty-four hours per day, it means that forex dealers could liquidate traders’ positions fairly quickly in case of margin calls. このために, forex customers are rarely in danger of generating a negative balance in their account, since computers automatically close out all positions.

The margin-stop risk management strategy is based on the trader’s total capital being divided into various allotments for each of one or more new or different trading strategies and systems.

たとえば, assume the trader is investing a total of $10,000 into forex trading, and he or she wishes to focus individually on trying 5 different trading systems and strategies in order to determine objectively which is the best “fit” for the trader.

だから, the trader will open the forex account by wiring only $2000 from his or her bank account, assuming that each of the 5 receives the same funding proportion. If a forex broker offers leverage of 100-to-1, 、 $2000 deposit might allow the trading system to control two standard 100,000-unit lots.

さらに良い, depending on the trader’s risk tolerance and management, the system may trade using a 50,000-unit lot position. That might allow room for as much as 100 点数.

As successive strategies are funded and launched exclusively, it’s easier to account for wins and losses due to individual approaches. It allows developers to refine their systems. と, traders enjoy more peace of mind by knowing that an unforeseen “blowup” won’t terminate their trading.

任意のイベントで, the primary purpose of the margin stop is to prevent a runaway loss from occurring during the launch of a new strategy or trading system. It also helps enforce discipline in risk and money management.

Know when to hold and when to fold

結論としては, it can be said that trading success is based on surviving losing trades long enough to finally develop a consistently-winning system. Each forex trader should carefully consider his or her risk tolerance, and craft a risk management strategy to fit.

Mechanical trading systems make it easy to find good entry points, yet it’s just as important to have a sold risk management strategy, plus the tools to determine an exit point immediately after entering any position.

結局その程度です, taking the right loss at the right time is a necessary part of the game.

What are your thoughts about losses?

以下の下でファイルさ: 外国為替市場のしくみ?, お金を失うことを停止します。, 戦略の取引のアイデア タグが付いて: 外国為替, リスク管理, ボラティリティ

タートル取引戦略への総合ガイド

3 月 31, 2014 によって エディ ・花 16 コメント

タートルトレーディング トレンド以下の戦略の家族に与えられた名前です. 価格は短期的なチャネルから抜け出すときに取引を入力するための単純な機械的なルールに基づいています. 目標は最初から長期的なトレンドに乗ることです.

タートル取引は良いトレーダーは、生来の才能を持って生まれたかどうか議論された2つの先駆​​的な先物トレーダーによって1980年代の実験から生まれました, または誰もが正常に取引するように訓練することができるかどうか. カメはシンプルを開発, 任意の規律のトレーダーが使用することができ、機械的取引システムを受賞, かかわらず、これまでの経験の.

「亀の取引」の名前は、いくつかの可能な起源に起因しています. 私にとって, それは、このシステムから「遅いが、必ず「結果の典型. 複雑なブラックボックスのシステムとは対照的に, カメの取引ルールでは、独自のシステムを構築するのに十分なため、シンプルで簡単です — 私は非常にお勧めします.

カメの取引の最も初期の形式は手動でした. と, 彼らは移動平均とリスク制限の面倒な計算を必要と. まだ, 今日の機械的なトレーダーは、成功した取引にそれらを導くために亀のパラメータに基づいてアルゴリズムを使用することができます. いつものように, 取引成功の鍵は、一貫性のある分野であります.

どの市場はカメ取引のための最適です?

あなたの最初の決定はトレードするためにどの市場であります. タートル取引は、流動性の高い市場の長期的なトレンドの開始時にスポッティングし、乗ってジャンプに基づいています, 通常先物. 長期的なトレンドの変化はまれであるので、, あなたは十分な取引の機会を見つけることができる流動性の高い市場を選択する必要があります.

turtle trading strategy

私のお気に入りは、CMEにあり: Agriculturalsについて, 私はトウモロコシが好き, 大豆, ソフト赤冬小麦. 最高の株式指数は、E-ミニSです&P 500, E-ミニNASDAQ100, E-ミニダウ. エネルギーグループで, 私は、E-ミニ原油が好き (CL), E-ミニnatgasとヒーティングオイル.

と, 外国為替で, それは、AUD / USDです, CAD / USD, ユーロ/米ドル, GPB / USD, そして、円/ドル. デリバティブの金利グループから, 私はユーロダラーが好き, T-ボンズ, そして、5年債(注). 最後に, 金属で最良の候補は常にゴールドです, 銀、銅.

カメの取引が成功したエントリ信号の限られた数との長期的な仕事であるので、, あなたは先物のかなり広いグループを選択する必要があります. これらは、上記の私のお気に入りです, 彼らは非常に液体なら他の人が同様に動作しますが、. たとえば, 過去に私はユーロ・ストックス取引きました 50 優れた結果と先物.

また, 私は、最も近いヶ月の契約を取引, 彼らは、有効期限の数週間以内でない限り. 上記のすべて, それは一貫性が決定的に重要です. 私はいつも見て、同じ先物を取引.

ポジションサイズ

カメの取引に, あなたがヒット、各ホームランのために何回も三振ます. それです, あなたはすぐに停止することがあります、そこから取引を入力するために、多くの信号を受信します. しかし, それらのいくつかの機会にあなたは正しい時, あなたはでの優勝取引を入力することがあります 正確に正しい瞬間 - トレンドの長期的な変化の始まり.

だから, リスク管理のためのあなたの生存率は、右の位置・サイズを選択するに依存します. あなたはホームランを打つ前にストップアウトにお金が不足しないことを確認するために、機械的な取引システムをプログラムする必要があります.

ボラティリティに基づいて定割合リスク

カメの取引におけるキーは一定のままボラティリティベースのリスク・ポジションを使用することです. それは契約の各タイプのドル価値に応じて自分の位置のサイズを調整することで、ドルのボラティリティを滑らかにするようにあなたの位置サイズのアルゴリズムをプログラム.

これは非常によく動作します. 亀のトレーダーは少ないのいずれかで構成された位置に入り、, より、高価な契約, あるいはそれ以上, あまり高価な契約, 関係なく、特定の市場における根本的なボラティリティの.

たとえば, 時亀取引が必要なミニ契約, 言う, $3000 余白に, 私はそのような契約を売る/買います, 私が必要とする先物契約で位置を入力するときには $1500 余白に, 私は買い/売り 2 契約.

この方法は、異なる市場での取引は、特定のドルの損失や利益のために同様のチャンスを持っていることを保証します. 指定された市場のボラティリティが低い場合でも、, あなたはそれより少ない揮発性、将来のより多くの契約を保持しているので、市場で成功した亀の取引を通じて、あなたはまだ大きな勝ちます.

計算し、ボラティリティを活用する方法 - 「N」の概念

文字を使用する初期のカメ N 市場の根本的なボラティリティを指定します. Nは指数移動20日間の真の範囲として計算されます (TR).

簡単に説明, Nは特定の市場における平均単日の価格の動きであり、, オープニングギャップを含みます. Nは、先物契約と同じ単位で記載されています.

あなたは、このような真の範囲を計算するために、あなたのカメの取引システムをプログラミングする必要があります:

真の範囲は、より多くのを=: 今日の高いマイナス今日の低いです, または、今日の高いマイナス前日の終値, または前日の終値マイナス今日の低. 要するに:

TR = (最大) TH – TL; またはTH – PDC; またはPDC – TL

デイリーNは次のように計算され: [(19 X PDN) + TR] / 20 (PDNは、前日のNであり、TRは当日の真の範囲です。)

式は、Nのために前日の値を必要とするので, あなたが最初の計算は単純な20日間の平均であることから始めましょう.

ボラティリティのために調整することで、リスクを制限します

位置のサイズを決定するために、, そのN値の面で根本的な市場のドルのボラティリティを計算するためのプログラムあなたのカメの取引システム. それは簡単です:

ドルのボラティリティ= [契約額のポイントごとドル] X N

私が「正常な」リスク嫌悪を感じる時間の間に, 私は設定します 1 に等しいとしてのN 1% アカウントの株式の. と, during times when I feel more risk-averse than normal, or when my account is more drawn-down than normal, 私は設定します 1 に等しいとしてのN 0.5% アカウントの株式の.

The units for position size in a given market are calculated as follows:

1 unit = 1% of account equity / Market’s dollar volatility

Which is the same as:

1 unit = 1% of account equity / ([契約額のポイントごとドル] X N)

Here’s an example for Heating Oil (HO):

Day High Low Close TR N

1 3.7220 3.7124 3.7124 0.0096 0.0134

2 3.7170 3.7073 3.7073 0.0097 0.0132

3 3.7099 3.6923 3.6923 0.0176 0.0134

4 3.6930 3.6800 3.6838 0.0130 0.0134

5 3.6960 3.6736 3.6736 0.0224 0.0139

6 3.6820 3.6706 3.6706 0.0114 0.0137

7 3.6820 3.6710 3.6710 0.0114 0.0136

8 3.6795 3.6720 3.6744 0.0085 0.0134

9 3.6760 3.6550 3.6616 0.0210 0.0138

10 3.6650 3.6585 3.6627 0.0065 0.0134

11 3.6701 3.6620 3.6701 0.0081 0.0131

12 3.6965 3.6750 3.6965 0.0264 0.0138

13 3.7065 3.6944 3.6944 0.0121 0.0137

14 3.7115 3.6944 3.7087 0.0171 0.0139

15 3.7168 3.7100 3.7124 0.0081 0.0136

16 3.7265 3.7120 3.7265 0.0145 0.0136

17 3.7265 3.7098 3.7098 0.0167 0.0138

18 3.7184 3.7110 3.7184 0.0086 0.0135

19 3.7280 3.7200 3.7228 0.0096 0.0133

20 3.7375 3.7227 3.7359 0.0148 0.0134

21 3.7447 3.7310 3.7389 0.0137 0.0134

22 3.7420 3.7140 3.7162 0.0280 0.0141

For HO the dollars-per-point is $42,000 because the contract size is 42,000 gallons and the contract is quoted in dollars.

Assuming a turtle trading account size of $1 百万円, the unit size for the next trading day (Day 23 in the above series) as calculated using the value of N = .0141 for Day 22 は:

Unit size = [.001 x $1 百万円] / [.0141 x 42,000] = 16.80

Because partial contracts can’t be traded, in this example the position size is rounded downward to 16 契約. You can program your algorithms to perform N-size and unit calculations weekly or even daily.

Position sizing helps you build positions with constant volatility risk across all the markets you trade. It’s important to turtle-trade using the largest account possible, even when you’re trading only minis.

You must ensure that the fractions of position size will allow you to trade at least one contract in each market. Small accounts will fall prey to granularity.

The beauty of turtle trading is that N serves to manage your position size as well as position risk と total portfolio risk.

The risk-management rules of turtle trading dictate that you must program your mechanical trading system to limit exposure in any single market to 4 単位, your exposure in correlated markets to a total of 8 単位, and your total “direction exposure” (すなわち. long or short) in all markets to a maximum total of 12 units in each direction.

Entry timing when turtle trading

The N calculations above give you the appropriate position size. と, a mechanical turtle trading system will generate clear signals, so automated entries are easy.

You’ll enter your chosen markets when prices break out from Donchian channels. Breakouts are signaled when the price moves beyond the high or low of the previous 20-day period.

In spite of the round-the-clock availability of e-mini trading, I only enter during the daytime trading session. If there’s a price gap on open, I enter the trade if the price is moving in my target direction on open.

I enter the trade when the price moves one tick past the high or low of the previous 20 日.

しかし, here’s an important caveat: If the last breakout, 長いか短いかどうか, would have resulted in a 勝利 貿易, I do not enter the current trade.

It doesn’t matter whether that last breakout wasn’t traded because it was skipped for any reason, or whether that last breakout was actually traded and was a loser.

と, if traded, I consider a breakout a loser if the price after the breakout subsequently moves 2N against me before a profitable exit at a minimum 10 日, as described below.

To repeat: I only enter trades after a previous losing breakout. As a fallback to avoid missing out on major market moves, I can the trade at the end of a 55-day “failsafe breakout” period.

By adhering to this caveat, you will greatly increase your chance of being in the market at the beginning of a long-term move. That’s because the previous direction of the move has been proven false by that (hypothetical) losing trade.

Some turtle traders use an alternative method which involves taking すべて breakout trades even if the previous breakout trade lost or would have lost. しかし, for turtle trading personal accounts I have found that my drawdowns are less when adhering to the rule of only trading if the previous breakout trade was or would have been a loser.

Order size

When I receive an entry signal from a breakout, my mechanical trading system automatically enters with an order size of 1 unit. The only exception is when, as mentioned above, I’m in a period of deeper-than-usual drawdown. その場合, I enter ½ unit size.

次, if the price continues in the hoped-for direction, my system automatically adds to the position in increments of 1 unit at each additional ½ N price movement while the price continues in the desired direction.

The mechanical trading system keeps adding to my holding until the position limit is reached, say at 4N as discussed earlier. I prefer limit orders, although you can also program the system to favor market orders if you wish.

Here’s an example entry into Gold (GC) 先物:

N = 12.50, and the long breakout is at $1310

I buy the first unit at 1310. I buy the second unit at the price [1310 + (½ x 12.50) = 1316.25] rounded to 1316.30.

その後、, if the price move continues, I buy the third unit at [1316.30 + (½ x 12.50 = 1322.55] rounded to 1322.60.

最後に, if gold keeps advancing I buy the fourth, last unit at [1322.60 + (½ x 12.50) = 1328.85] rounded to 1328.90.

In this example the price progress continues in such a short time period that the N value hasn’t changed. 任意のイベントで, it’s easy to program your mechanical trading system to keep track of everything on-the-fly, including changes in N, position sizes, and entry points.

Turtle trading stops

Turtle trading involves taking numerous small losses while waiting to catch the occasional long-term changes in trend which are big winners. Preserving equity is critically important.

My automatic turtle trading system helps my confidence and discipline by removing the emotional component of trading, so I’m automatically entered in the winners.

Stops are based on N values, and no single trade represents more than 2% risk to my account. The stops are set at 2N since each N of price movement equals 1% アカウントの株式の.

だから, for long positions I set the stop-loss at 2N below my actual entry point (order fill price), and for short positions the stop is at 2N above my entry point.

To balance the risk when I add additional units to a position which has been moving in the desired direction, I raise the stops for the previous entries by ½ N.

This usually means that I will place all my stops for the total position at 2 N from the unit which I added most recently. まだ, in case of gaps-on-open, or fast-moving markets, the stops will be different.

The advantages of using N-based stops are obvious – The stops are based on market volatility, which balances the risk across all my entry points.

Exiting a trade

Since turtle trading means I must suffer many small “strike-outs” to enjoy relatively few “home-runs,” I’m careful not to exit winning trades too early.

My mechanical trading system is programmed to exit at a 10-day low on my long entries, and at a 10-day high for short positions. If the 10-day threshold is breached, my system exits from the entire position.

The mechanical trading system helps overcome my greed and emotional tendency to close out a profitable trade too early. I exit using standard stop orders, and I don’t play any “wait and see” games…. I let my mechanical trading system make those decisions for me.

It can be gut-wrenching to watch my account fatten dramatically during a major market move with a winning trade, then give back significant “paper gains” before I’m stopped out. まだ, my pet mechanical trading system works very well.

Turtle trading algorithms offer a quick way to build your own do-it-yourself mechanical trading system which is simple, easy-to-understand and effective.

If you have the discipline to keep your hands off and let your mechanical trading system do its job, turtle trading may be your best choice.

結局その程度です, turtles are slow, but they usually win the race……

 

 

以下の下でファイルさ: 外国為替市場のしくみ?, お金を失うことを停止します。, 戦略の取引のアイデア タグが付いて: 外国為替, mechanical trading systems, リスク管理, タートルトレーディング

機械取引システムと勝つ方法

3 月 18, 2014 によって エディ ・花 13 コメント

多くのインクは、機械的な取引システム故障の原因を特定することに専念してきました, 実際には、特に後. それは矛盾に見えるかもしれませんが (または, 一部のトレーダーに, 単に低能), なぜこれらの取引のシステムが失敗する主な理由はハンズフリーにあまり依存しています。, メカニカルトレーディングの火災を忘れて自然. アルゴリズム自身ない客観的人間監督と市場環境の変化に伴い進化システムのために必要となる介入.

機械的な取引システム障害, またはトレーダーの失敗?

取引システムの障害を嘆くのではなく, 建設的なトレーダーが両方の世界のベストを持つことができる方法を検討するは: それです, トレーダーは、アルゴリズムで管理された機械的な取引システムの利点を楽しむことができます。, 矢継ぎ早の自動実行など取引の決定の感情解放, まだ失敗と成功について客観的な思考の人間に生来の能力を活用しながら.

すべてのトレーダーの最も重要な要素は、人間の能力 進化. トレーダーすることができます変更し、財政的にまたは感情的に壊滅的な損失になる前に勝ち続けるために彼らの貿易システムを適応.

右のタイプと量をテストするための市場データを選択します。

成功したトレーダーは、市場の短期的な非効率から利益を収穫するのに反復的な規則のシステムを使用します。. 小型用, 有価証券及びデリバティブ取引の大きな世界で独立したトレーダー, スプレッドが薄いと競争激しい, 利益のための最高の機会は、スポッティングに基づく市場の非効率性から来る, 簡単に定量化するデータ, 可能な限り迅速に行動し、.

トレーダーが開発し、動作履歴データに基づく機械的な取引システム, 彼または彼女は、現在の市場の非効率性が引き続きアイデアに基づいて将来の利益を望んでいます。. 間違ったデータを設定または不適切なパラメーターを使用して、データを限定トレーダーを選択した場合, 貴重な機会が失われることがあります。. 同時に, 履歴データが存在しなく、非効率で検出されます。, その後、取引システムが失敗します。. なぜそれが消えた理由は機械のトレーダーに重要ではないです。. 結果問題のみ.

mechanical trading rules

作成し、機械的な取引システムをテストするデータ セットを選択するときに最も適切なデータ セットを選ぶ. と, 取引ルールの市場条件の広い範囲の下で一貫した動作かどうかを確認するのに十分な大きさのサンプルをテストするために, トレーダーは、テスト データの最長期間を使用する必要があります。.

だから, 設計パラメーターの最も簡単なセットと同様、両方の可能な最も長く歴史的データ セットに基づいて機械的な取引システムを構築するようにします. 堅牢性は多くのタイプの市場の条件に耐える能力を考慮して一般的に. 堅牢性を過去のデータと単純なルールの長い時間範囲にわたってテスト システムに固有にする必要があります。. 長時間にわたるテストと基本的なルールは、将来的に潜在的な市場条件の広い配列を反映すべき.

履歴データは明らかにすべての将来のイベントを含まれないために、すべての機械的な取引システムは最終的に失敗します。. 歴史データで作成されたすべてのシステムは最終的に歴史に無関心な条件を発生します。. 人間の洞察力と介入からレールを離れて実行している自動化された戦略を防ぎます. 騎士の首都では、人々 が何かを知る ライブ取引混乱状態.

その適応性、シンプルさ勝

成功した機械的な取引システムは生きているようなします。, 生物の呼吸. 世界の地層に満ちている生物の化石を, 自分の歴史の期間の間に短期的な成功に最適ですが, あまりにも適応と長期生存に特化しました。. クイックを受けることができるため、人間指導の単純なアルゴリズムによる機械的な取引システムが最高, 簡単な進化と環境の変化への適応 (市場を読む).

シンプルな取引ルールがデータ マイニング バイアスの潜在的な影響を減らす. データ マイニングからバイアス それは歴史的な規則が将来の条件の下で適用されますどれだけ誇張するかもしれないので問題は, 機械的なトレーディング システムは、短い時間フレームに焦点を当てたときに特に. シンプルで堅牢な機械的な取引システムのテスト用に使用されるタイム フレームで影響を受けるべきではないです。. -履歴データの特定の範囲内にあるテスト ポイント数まだ証明またはテストされている取引ルールの有効性を反証するのに十分な大きさにする必要があります。. 言い方を変えれば, 単純です, データ マイニングのバイアスを上回る強力な機械的な取引システム.

トレーダーは、シンプルなデザイン パラメーターを持つシステムを使用している場合, よう、 QuantBar システム, 最長の適切な歴史的な期間を使用して、テストと, 他に重要なできるタスク システムの取引とその結果を今後監視の分野に固執することになります. 観測により、進化.

反対に, 「事前に進化して」システムの初期絶滅のリスクを実行する複数のパラメーターの複雑なセットから構築された機械的な取引システムを使用するトレーダー.

機械取引の最善を活用する堅牢なシステムを構築します。, 煩わされずその弱点に

機械的なトレーディング システムの堅牢性と適応性を混同しないことが重要です。. システムの開発は '堅牢な' として記述されている多数の歴史的な期間に- と -現在の観測期間中であっても取引を獲得につながったパラメーターに基づいて、します。ないですこのようなシステムが正常に一度調整すること保証彼らは過去の自分の"ハネムーン期間貿易されています。” その中に条件はシステムの基になる、特定の歴史的な期間に合わせて起こる初期取引期間であります。.

単純な機械的な取引システムは簡単に新しい条件に適応, でも、市場変化の根本的な原因は明白でなく残る, 複雑なシステムでは不十分と. 市場環境の変化, 彼らは継続的に行う, 獲得していく可能性が最も高い取引システムは、シンプルで最も簡単に新しい条件に適応; 本当に堅牢なシステムは、とりわけ長寿を持っています。.

クイックを受けることができるため、人間指導の単純なアルゴリズムによる機械的な取引システムが最高, 簡単な進化と環境の変化への適応 (市場を読む).

残念なことに, 過度に複雑な機械的な取引システムを使用する場合の利益の最初の期間を経験した後, 多くのトレーダーが成功にこれらのシステムを微調整しようとしての罠に陥る. 市場の不明, まだ変更, 条件がありますが既に機械的な取引システムの全体の種、絶滅する運命. もう一度, シンプルさと状況の変化への適応性を提供する任意のトレーディング システムの生存のための最善の希望.

成功と失敗を区別する客観的な計測を使用します。

トレーダーの最も一般的な落下は彼または彼女の取引システムへの心理的な添付ファイルです。. 取引システムの障害が発生した場合, それは通常のトレーダーは、客観的ではなく主観的な視点を採用しているので, 特定取引中に停止損失に関しては特に.

人間の本性はしばしば感情的な添付ファイルを特定のシステムを開発する業者を運転します。, 特にときトレーダーに投資している時間とお金のかなりの量機械取引システムを理解することは困難である多くの複雑なパーツ. しかし, それを客観的に検討するためにシステムの外のステップにトレーダーのため極めて重要です。.

いくつかのケースで, 貿易業者になるシステムの予想される成功の妄想, 主観的な分析よりもはるかに長く、明らかに失うシステムを取引を継続することのポイントにも許してしまう. または, 脂肪の wins の期間の後, トレーダーは、可能性がありますになる「結婚」旧歴システムにその美しさが損失の圧力の下でフェードしながらも. 悪化, トレーダーは、テストの期間をまたは既に失うことシステムの統計的パラメーターを選んでの罠に落ちることがあります。, システムの偽の希望を維持するためには、値の継続的します。.

客観的基準, 現在の失敗の確率を評価する標準偏差のメソッドを使用するなど, 機械的なトレーディング システムの真の失敗があるかどうかを決定するための唯一の勝利方法です。. 客観的な目で, 機械的なトレーディング システムで迅速にスポットまたは潜在的な障害にトレーダーの簡単です。, シンプルなシステムは、迅速かつ簡単に新鮮な歴システムをもう一度作成に適応させること、.

機械的な取引システムの障害はしばしば歴史的な損失やドローダウンに対する測定電流の損失の比較に基づいてを定量化します。. このような分析は、主観的につながる可能性があります。, 不正確な結論. 最大ドローダウンは、トレーダーがシステムを放棄するしきい値としてよく使用されます。. 方法システムまでドローダウン レベルを考慮せず, またはそのレベルに達するに必要な時間の長さ, トレーダーは、システムがドローダウンだけに基づいて敗者である結論とせず.

障害の指標としてドローダウンに対する標準偏差

実際, 受賞システムを破棄することを避けるために最善の方法は客観的測定標準を使用して実際にそれを取引しながら得られたシステムからリターンの現在または最近の分布を確認するには. バックテストからリターンの歴史的な分布に対して測定を計算比較します。, 確実性に従って固定しきい値値を割り当てる際の機械的な取引システムの現在の「失う」配布は確かに正常より, 予想される損失, したがって失敗として捨てられるべき.

だから, たとえば, 貿易業者が現在のドローダウン レベルでシグナル状態に問題あり、彼の調査をトリガーを無視することを前提としてください。. 代わりに, 歴史的テスト期間中そのシステムの取引中に発生と歴史的な損失に対して現在の連敗を比較します。. どのように保守的なトレーダーがによってください。, 彼または彼女は現在または最近の損失が超えていることに気付く場合があります。, 言う, 、 95% 「普通の」歴史的な損失レベルからの 2 つの標準偏差によって暗黙的に指定確実レベル. これは確かに強力な統計記号は、システムのパフォーマンスが低下するだろう, したがって失敗しましたと. 対照的に, リスクの大きい食欲と異なるトレーダーことがあります 3 つのことを客観的に決めることの規範からの標準偏差 (すなわち. 99.7%) 確実に適切なレベルとして取引システムを判断するため「失敗」

任意のトレーディング システムの最も重要な要因’ 成功, 手動または機械かどうか, 人間の意思決定能力は、常に. 良い機械的な取引システムの値は、します。, すべての良いマシンのような, 彼らは人間の弱点を最小限に抑え、マニュアルの方法をはるかに超えて達成可能な達成に力を与える. まだ, 正しく作成されたとき, 彼らはまだトレーダーの判断に従ってしっかりした制御を許可して、彼または彼女が障害物と潜在的な障害の明確な舵取りをできるように.

トレーダーが損失するかどうかを評価する標準分布の統計計算の形で数学を使用できますが、通常、歴史的な記録によると許容, 彼または彼女はまだ作る純粋な機械ではなく人間の判断に依存します。, 単独でのアルゴリズムに基づく数学ベースの意思決定.

トレーダーは、両方の世界のベストを楽しむことができます。. アルゴリズムとメカニカルトレーディングの力は、発注・施工に関する人間の感情や遅刻の影響を最小します。, ストップロスの規律を維持することに関しては特に. それはまだ取引のシステムを人間の制御を保持するために標準偏差の客観的な評価を使用してください。.

変更のために準備します。, 取引システムを変更しておいて

ときに検出する客観性とともに、機械的な取引システムは、敗者に勝者から変更します。, トレーダーでは、規律と先見性に進化し、彼らは新しい市場環境に勝つために続けることができますので、システムを変更する必要があります。. どのような環境変化でいっぱいに, シンプルなシステム, その進化になります迅速かつ容易に. 複雑な戦略が失敗した場合, 簡単にそれを変更するよりも交換することがあります。, いくつかの最も簡単な最も直感的なシステムの, よう、 QuantBar システム, 比較的容易に将来の市場状況に適応するためにその場でを変更.

要約すると, 正しく作成された機械的な取引システムはシンプルかつ適応可能であるべきといえよう, さまざまな市場条件の下で利益を生成するのに十分な堅牢なされるように、右のタイプとデータ量によるとテストと. と, 受賞システムは成功の適切な基準によって判断しなければなりません。. アルゴリズム取引ルールや最大ドローダウンのレベルに依存するだけではなく, システムが失敗したかどうかについての決定は、トレーダーの人間の判断によるとすべきであります。, システムの現在のパフォーマンスの歴史的なテスト損失に対して測定した場合の標準偏差の数の評価に基づいて. 機械的なトレーディング システムは実行に失敗した場合, トレーダーは、失うシステムにしがみつくのではなく必要な変更をする必要があります。.

以下の下でファイルさ: 外国為替市場のしくみ?, メタト レーダーのヒント, 戦略の取引のアイデア タグが付いて: バックテスト, 専門家アドバイザー, 外国為替, 機械取引, リスク管理, 標準偏差, 損失を停止します。, 戦略

Is Your Account Overleveraged?

3 月 7, 2014 によって カレン ・ スミス Leave a Comment

Did your broker ever tell you that you can leverage your trade? Here is a quick primer if you aren’t familiar with the term.

レバレッジ (also called buying on margin) means that you can borrow funds to place your trades. たとえば, let’s assume that you have $500 アカウント内. You could borrow $4,500 from your broker to place a $5,000 貿易. This means that your account would be leveraged 10:1.

Leverage can be a great way to increase your return. この場合, you would magnify your return 10 times over. The downside with leverage is that it also magnifies your losses proportionally as well.

Dangers of Overleveraging

You shouldn’t be afraid to buy on the margin for fear of making some bad trades. You will inevitably make some wrong trades with or without being leveraged. The problem is that taking on too much leverage can completely wipe you out. Here are some things that you need to keep in mind.

Overleveraging your account is a disaster waiting to happen

You May Face Margin Calls

You need to put aside enough money in your account to cover any losses that you incur. The money that you set aside to cover losses is known as the usable margin. Your broker will allow you to keep a trade open until the loss is equal to your usable balance margin.

This is a complex topic, so let me illustrate with an example. You opened an account with $1,000. You decide that you want to buy 10 ミニロット (10,000 単位) of the EUR/USD. You decide to use $500 to place a $100,000 trade by leveraging your account 200:1. This leaves you with a usable margin of $500.

Every pip is worth about $10, which means that even small fluctuations can have a substantial impact on your account. You will get a margin call as soon as it falls 50 pips below the purchase price. You would either need to increase the size of your usable margin or close the trade.

Why Margin Calls are a Concern?

As I stated earlier, your losses are significantly higher when your account is leveraged. Rather than losing $50, you will lose $1,000 if your account is leveraged 200:1. This can obviously cost you a lot of money if you made a bad trade.

しかし, being overleveraged can also cost you if you made the 右 貿易. You may have accurately predicted that the currency would increase by 100 pips in the next 48 時間. しかし, the forex market is often very volatile. The price may drop by 50 pips before rebounding to the strike price. You would face a margin call and close your trade at a $500 loss before you got to realize your profit.

Placing a trade at a 200:1 余白はこの場合間違った決断をされているだろう. 何が起こったとあなたのアカウントを利用する場合 50:1 代わりに? 各 pip はだけの価値があるだろう $2.50. いると $375 価格は下落した場合、利用可能なマージンで 50 ピップ, つまり、あなたのブローカーからマージン コールを受信しません。. 価格はリバウンドする時点で 100 購入価格以上のピップ, 利益を獲得するいると思います $250.

レバレッジ比率が違いをしただろうな $250 利益と $500 損失. 貿易の際念頭に置いてそれを維持することが重要です。.

どのくらいのレバレッジを使用する必要があります。?

誰もミスをする外国為替トレーダー. 時間をかけて投資で良くなるだろう. しかし, 教訓を学ぶ前に、あなたのシャツを失うことはないことを確認する必要があります。. 初め外国為替投資家なら, then you will probably want to use a much more conservative leverage ratio. Some investors recommend using a ratio of 3:1 or having no leverage at all.

Even seasoned traders need to be careful when making trades. Many aggressive traders use leverage ratios under 10:1. More cautious investors may use a leverage ratio of 3:1 以下.

Choosing a leverage ratio is a blend of art and science. Here are some things that you will want to keep in mind:

  • The market volatility. Prices can fluctuate much more significantly at some times than others. The average daily movement for the EUR/USD was 185 でピップ 2008, 比較すると 110 でピップ 2013. You can face a margin call much more quickly in a volatile market, so a lower leverage ratio would be smarter.
  • Correlation between currency pairs. Prices can vary considerably between different currency pairs. ユーロ/米ドルの最後の年の間の平均の動きだった 110 ピップ, ポンド/円は 189. おそらく 2 番目のペアを取引した場合、低いレバレッジ比率を使用したいだろう.
  • 計画の期間. あなたの貿易を実行にかかる時間を考慮する必要があります。. 3 日間開いたままにあなたの貿易を計画します。. それは当時の少なくとも 2 つの「平均的な」損失を発生可能性があります、利用可能なマージンを設定することをお勧めかもしれない. 現在の市場での通貨ペアの平均ピップの運動と思われる場合 150 あなたの利用可能なマージンがカバーできるかどうかを確認したい場合がありますし、ピップ、 300 ピップ ドロップ. さらにもっと保守的な市場はさらにもっと不安定になり始めて場合する場合可能性があります。.

ショーンも爆破のトレーダーのチャンスに影響を与えるある特定の貿易のリスクを示す偉大なビデオを準備.

外国為替マージンを設定している場合に留意すべき要素が多い. これらに留意し、どのくらいのリスクを取ることができますを決定する必要があります。. 成功外為トレーダーは多くの場合の投資を活用します。, 彼らは賢明なそう方法を知っているが、.

以下の下でファイルさ: 外国為替市場のしくみ?, お金を失うことを停止します。 タグが付いて: 相関関係, 外国為替, レバレッジ, マージン, ボラティリティ

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