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How to Trade the GBP after Brexit

7 月 12, 2016 によって リオル Alkalay 2 コメント

The selloff in GBP pairs after Brexit presents a challenge for a trader. At first glance, the strategy for the key GBP pairs, mainly that of the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY, should be simple. The GBP is in vertical short, falling almost in a horizontal line; therefore, the trader should apply a vertical short strategy. But when it comes to the GBP, and for that matter, any pair trading at multi-decade lows, the game plan should be slightly different. So without further ado, here are some tips to trade the GBP after Brexit and any pair that is under its historical lows.

英国ポンド: Two Risks

In the aftermath of the GBP Brexit meltdown, GBP pairs, such as the GBP/USD, have two major risks that we have to navigate around – direction and momentum.

Direction – Since we are talking about multi-year lows, we cannot know when the bottom will emerge, because the pair is in uncharted territory.

Momentum – Again, we have no way of knowing when the momentum will change from vertical bearish movement to a trend to a possible range bound.

So how do we handle those unknowns? We use strategies that minimize the risk from the elements.

Buy on Hammer Reversal

As we can see in the chart below, and as is common when a vertical short occurs, after the vertical short comes a brief bounce. What indicates that that bounce is coming is a hammer reversal candle. A hammer reversal candle is a candle where the middle is long and the opening price and closing price are very close. Once we get a hammer reversal candle we can expect a small bounce.

To increase our confidence in an upcoming bounce we can and should combine a MACD indicator. If the MACD indicator suggests weakening momentum, we get a confirmation. Once we get our confirmation it is a signal to buy; our limit should be set below the opening price of the first full bearish candle of the latest vertical short.

英国ポンド

Why should we use this strategy? When we have no indication as to when the pair will bottom out, it’s hard to take a short without risking a sudden bounce back. Normally, it’s less advisable to trade but, under the current conditions, this pattern gives us a chance to reduce the risk of the unknown and minimize the time we are exposed to a choppy market.

Sell on a Major Pull Back

At some stage, every short, no matter how strong, gets a major pull back. That will be our first real opportunity for a short entry. Once we get a major reversal, and by major I mean at least 38.2% of a Fibonacci retracement, then we will get our opportunity to short. That’s because no bearish trend ends without at least two attempts at the same low. That means that, at such a stage, we are no longer in an unknown and our target is the pair’s lowest point.

It’s important to note that when a pair experiences a major retracement it usually signals the end of a vertical short movement and thus is a signal for us to stop using our hammer reversal strategy.

Our limit is now known, aka the low of the pair. And our signal to short can be varied, as in trading a short under any other circumstance. Oscillators such as the MACD, 平均真の範囲 and the Stochastic Oscillator can help us time the resumption of the bearish momentum and ride the bearish wave.

But what’s important to understand here is that after a major retracement, it’s much safer to start trading on a longer term and ride a bearish wave.

結論として

Although those insights have been implemented on the latest meltdown in GBP pairs, the tactics we learned here are not only useful for the GBP but can prepare you for the next FX pair meltdown, whether it’s the Euro pairs or the Brazilian Real pairs. What those tactics teach you is how to trade a rather risky situation with plenty of uncertainty. 確認して, it is still risky to trade a currency in a meltdown, but at least, with the tactics above, you can avoid the major pitfalls.

以下の下でファイルさ: 現在の市場で起きていること? タグが付いて: Brexit, candlestick charting, フィボナッチ, GBPUSD, hammer, oscillator, retracement

Flat and happy

6 月 24, 2016 によって ショーンオバートン Leave a Comment

This is the first financial event since 2008 that’s hit the mainstream public. Even my friends from college are talking about the Brexit on Facebook.

My Dominari system only trades during the UK evening, so I felt comfortable leaving my system on overnight. When I woke up, しかし, I didn’t feel the same. Did you see the GBPUSD chart? Holy cow! 1,300 pips in an hour.

Brexit

GBPUSD lost more than 1,790 pips in a day from top to bottom on the Brexit.

This is the first time I’ve intervened in a trading system since April of last year. What makes me very happy, しかし, is that this intervention is all about protecting profits. I’m up 6.69% since I began trading the finalized version of Dominari on April 15.

Dominari equity curve

My equity curve as of June 24, 2016.

myfxbook.com/members/QuantBar/dominari-pepperstone/1591822 – my results at Pepperstone

Dominari isn’t intended to trade these types of markets. だから, instead of deciding to “see what happens”, I’m flat and happy until we see how the markets open after the weekend. I expect big gaps. I don’t feel like gambling which way the gaps may go.

If you clicked the original link, you noticed that the equity curve is marching straight up. That’s what’s supposed to happen. But like any good system trader, I wanted to see it working in the real world before I upped the capital commitment.

Earlier this month, I decided to trade a second account at FXCM, this time in USD. That brings my total accounts to €8,500 and $5,100. That’s about $14,600 in USD terms between the two accounts.

The FXCM account started live trading on June 6. Before then, I made sure to test it on an FXCM demo account to confirm that my edge wasn’t completely dependent upon broker selection. I’m happy to report that the FXCM results are closely mirroring those at Pepperstone.

myfxbook.com/members/QuantBar/dominari-fxcm-mt4/1679763 – my results at FXCM.

以下の下でファイルさ: ルール タグが付いて: Brexit, FXCM, GBPUSD, Pepperstone

QB プロ更新 9 月 2015

10 月 1, 2015 によって ショーンオバートン 6 コメント

黒に戻る! 月のリターンがあった 1.03%. それは巨大な利得ではないです。, 私は認める, しかし、勝利は勝利.

QB Pro lifetime Oct 2 2015

The lifetime equity for QB Pro

Performance didn’t really go anywhere this month. We floated 2% above and 2% below zero most of the time.

QB Pro Sept 2015 株式

The QB Pro performance for September 2015 のみ

QB Yen came in again at a minor loss -0.61%.

qb yen equity 201509

The performance for QB Yen only, Sept. 2015

I’m a bit disappointed with the QB Yen performance so far. Nothing seems wrong other than bad timing turning it on on my part. It’s still hard to take it on the chin for 5 months running, しかし.

The hedge

I manually hedged the portfolio earlier this month by buying USDCNH in a pullback from of all the chaos. The portfolio took it hard when the yuan was loosened up. I figured that any further volatility would likely stem from USDCNH weakness.

The Chinese are actively intervening in their currency. As we all know from the GBP in the 1990s and the CHF this year, interventions work until they don’t. The main point of concern for me is the rollover cost. It is quite expensive to maintain the position.

The thing that makes me comfortable with that trade is that there is no chance of China miraculously healing. It’s in debt up to its eyeballs – everything from corporates all the way up to regional governments. And while China doesn’t want the yuan to devalue too quickly, the absolute last thing it would want is for the yuan to rise in value.

I cannot conceive of any plausible scenario where China manages to return to the 7-10% annual GDP growth that it experienced for 30 年. Too hot, too fast. If you have a plausible scenario in mind, then write your ideas in the comments section.

Updates to the strategy

I’ve promised many updates to the strategy over the past 6 ヶ月. Jingwei and I have evaluated them all. All of the proposed changes came up far short of my expectations and were thus not implemented in the live account.

I’m working with Jingwei, our actuary, to develop new trading systems. You’re going to learn the newest indicator in a few months.

掲示されます。 OneStepRemoved.com 上 Thursday, 9 月 17, 2015

The changes alluded to in the post are all different from QB Pro. I’ve flogged that strategy about as much as I can.

I feel good about QB Pro long term. Before anything potentially good happens in the account, しかし, I really need the Fed to get off the bench. Raising rates would be good for us because it should kick off a long term USD trend. Another round of QE would be the best thing for the strategy. I personally despise QE and think it’s a bad idea, but it would ignite a massive USD selloff. That’s the kind of market where QB Pro has done extraordinarily well in the past.

Here’s the US dollar index for the past year:

US dollar index 365 日

The US dollar index for the past year.

And for easy comparison, here’s the same QB Pro lifetime equity chart. Notice that performance peaked around mid-March and has been flat ever since.

QB Pro lifetime Oct 2 2015

The lifetime equity for QB Pro

Things should pick back up whenever the dollar picks a direction. I expect that to happen by year’s end. Nobody will believe the Fed if they punt one more time on a rate increase in December.

In the meantime, all of this research has given me the great epiphany that the strategy works best where pairs are trending. The portfolio is being rebalanced this month accordingly.

以下の下でファイルさ: QB プロ タグが付いて: China, eurchf, Federal Reserve, GBPUSD, 金利, Quantitative Easing, Yuan

効果的な近似曲線ナビゲーション

6 月 24, 2015 によって リチャード ・ Krivo Leave a Comment

実質的に任意の取引のシナリオと同様に, 我々 は成功の可能性が最大のペアを取引する必要があります方向判定しなければなりません.

歴史を見て 4 下記の GBPUSD の時間のグラフ, 我々 は長い移動すること知っているいくつかの理由があります。 (購入します。) ペア. 上記価格のアクションは、 200 単純移動平均それから引き離し、. ペアになって高値 (緑の線) より高い安値基調を示す. また, このグラフの時, ポンドだった 、 最強通貨と米ドルより弱い通貨の一つであった.

これらのすべてを買いチャンスをポイントします。.

しかし, 疑問が残ります, 我々 は、貿易を入力するとき?

ここでは、近似曲線の届け…

Screen Shot 2013-06-24 で 2.58.57 PM

歴史を見てをみましょう 4 GBPUSD ペア以下の時間のグラフ…
近似曲線 1

 

We can see that price action has come in contact with trendline support at several points – ブルー ボックスに注意してください。.

以来、価格をテストし、少なくとも 3 つの近似曲線を尊重 “触れる”, 我々 は知っている私たちの近似が有効であります。.

近似曲線のサポートを使用してこのペアを購入する私たちの参入戦略を待つトレードに価格ダウン近似曲線とになります、 “買いゾーン”. 買いゾーンと屋台に取引の価格と近似曲線のサポートの下、キャンドルが閉じない場合, 同様に私達の青いボックスの例, 私たちのピット ストップ近似曲線のすぐ下またはすぐ下近似曲線を貫通する最低の芯とペアでロング ポジションを活かすことができます。.

価格抵抗に達した場合、トレーダーは取引を終了可能性があります。, 前高, または単純な採用することにより 1:2 リスク報酬の比率.

今、歴史を見てみましょう 4 下降近似の抵抗に対する販売の例のための USDCHF の時間のグラフ…

近似曲線 2

この取引のシナリオは事実上前の購入例かの逆になります.

それは、安値を下げるなってペアを販売したいです。 (赤い線) 下位の高値. 価格行動は以下、 200 SMA は、それから引き離し. また, このグラフの時, 米ドルが弱いと、スイスフランは強い.

もう一度, 価格行動はいくつかの点で私たちの抵抗線をテストします。 (ブルー ボックス) だから我々 は、有効な近似曲線を知っています。. 近似曲線抵抗まで取引価格待つだろうこの例、 “販売ゾーン”. 近似曲線上キャンドルを閉じない限り、, 私たちは、近似曲線を貫通する近似曲線上だけまたは最高の芯の真上の停止とのペアを売却すると.

貿易を閉じることが必要があります価格に達する前の低速または使用すること、 1:2 リスク報酬の比率取引を終了するには.

 

RKrivoFX@gmail.com

@RKrivoFX

以下の下でファイルさ: 外国為替市場のしくみ? タグが付いて: トレンドの方向を決定します。, GBPUSD, リスク報酬の比率, トレンド, 近似曲線, usdchf

Scalper EA Other Pairs

3 月 26, 2013 によって ショーンオバートン Leave a Comment

A number of readers are using the scalper EA in live accounts. The number one issue that many of them cited is that my research focused solely on the EURUSD. Does it work on other forex pairs?

絶対に. しかし, it doesn’t work on all of them. It’s important to follow the same logical process that explained why the expert advisor works so well on the EURUSD.

Analyze the scalper EA in Excel charts

We must dive back into Excel to evaluate the original hypothesis. My expectation was that the strategy should work on charts where the distance of the price from the 200 SMA forms a nice inflection midway through the curve.

GPBUSD price & SMA 200 distance frequency for the scalper EA

The frequency of various distances of the price from the 200 SMA on GBPUSD.

The area right around the 0.5% marks the inflection point. As a reminder, you can think of the curve as being composed of two parts. There’s the steep part, which is where the price is highly likely move. Then there is the flat part. That means the price drifts instead of moves.

Think of slope as rate of change. A steep slope means a fast rate of change. The price is likely to be anywhere but here on the next bar.

Flat slopes make for slow rates of change. The price is in fact very likely to remain a similar distance from the SMA in future bars.

Slope of frequency of price and SMA 200 distances.

The graph contains 2 slopes. A steep slope and a flat slope. Both are marked in red.

The strategy only works when price is likely to stay in the same spot. We are, 結局その程度です, 皮むき. The opportunity only exists when the expert advisor can trade in the chop. The chop only exists when the slope of the frequency line is flat.

I used my experience on the EURUSD to infer that 0.75% would make for a natural starting point to evaluate for the moving average envelope. It’s far away enough from the inflection point to overcome spread costs, but close enough to yield a solid number of trading opportunities.

The initial results came out even better than the EURUSD. These results do not include slippage, commissions or spread costs.

GBPUSD Results

Results for 2011 for the scalper EA on GBPUSD

Results for 2011 for the scalper EA on GBPUSD

The results are very much in line with the original idea. Percent accuracy stayed in the same ballpark, coming out to 81%. The profit factor jumped very nicely to 2.99, which is substantially better than the EURUSD performance of 2.16. The sample size consists of 113 取引, which is enough to infer a reasonable expectation of performance.

Equity curve of the scalper EA on GBPUSD for 2011.

Equity curve of the scalper EA on GBPUSD for 2011.

The final test is “does it make money when including trading costs?” 答えはイエスです. On a 2.5 ピップのスプレッド, the total trading costs of standard lots on 113 trades is $25/lot * 113 たくさん (取引) = $2,825. That number is substantially less than the raw profit of $5,360. It makes sense to trade this strategy.

The final step of walking forward unfortunately doesn’t offer enough data points to draw a conclusion. It only placed 13 trades for the entire year. It broke even.

USDCAD scalping stats

EA scalper, USDCAD, 0.9% banwidth

Performance for USDCAD 2011 with a band of 0.9%.

Equity curve of USDCAD for 2011, EA Scalper

Equity curve of USDCAD for 2011

USDJPY is a bad idea

The frequency graph for the USDJPY looks much, much different than the other currencies. Instead of being steep and mostly flat, it’s more like free falling and perfectly flat. The massive size of the tail and the severe contrast between the steep and flat portions led me to believe, correctly, that trading USDJPY would not be a good idea.

The frequency of various distances of the price from the 200 SMA on USDJPY.

The frequency of various distances of the price from the 200 SMA on USDJPY.

Although the areas near the inflection point are indeed the most profitable, the profit factor for USDJPY plummets to slightly above 1.0. When trading costs are factored in, it doesn’t make sense to trade.

Scalper EA USDJPY 2011

Trade performance for the scalper EA for USDJPY in 2011

Related

Have you read the article explaining how and why the scalper EA works?

If you have any suggestions on how to make the rules apply to more currency pairs or instruments, then please share in the comments section below.

以下の下でファイルさ: 戦略の取引のアイデア タグが付いて: ユーロドル, 専門家アドバイザー, GBPUSD, ダフ屋, 皮むき, USDCAD, USDJPY

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トレンド分析

申し訳ありませんが. No data so far.

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