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The guy that bet on Leicester City every year

9 月 5, 2016 によってショーンオバートン Leave a Comment

Leicester City started the 2015 season with terrible odds of winning the Premier League Championship. Bookmakers only game them odds of 5,000:1 of winning.

To put that in context, you are more likely to die riding a bicycle than you were to win a bet on Leicester City. または, you can think of betting on Leicester City every year. If you bet on them every single year for 5,000 年, you would expect them to win a grand total of… once.

2014 was hardly an indicator of their pending success. They were nearly relegated to a lower division (すなわち, kicked out of the Premier League). And yet, they did win the championship last year.

Leicester City’s Biggest Fan

Meet John Michklethwait. He’s the former editor-in-cheif at The Economist and he’s currently editor-in-chief for Bloomberg. 明らかに, he’s a very smart man. And yet, despite the odds and repeated disappointments, John bet on his old love, Leicester City, every single year dating back to the 1980s. That’s roughly 30 years of nonstop losing.

It wasn’t a lot of money each year: just £20. We all have our indulgences. I see the value of having skin in the game. £20 on a season is enough to make one care, but not so much that he’s upset about losing it.

Then something disruptive happened. John moved to the US last year for his position at Bloomberg. The chaos of the move threw him out of sorts, and he accidentally forgot to bet on Leicester City in 2015. He bet on them every single year dating back nearly 30 年. And yet the one year that he forgets to bet, not only did Leicester City win, but the bet paid out 5,000:1.

Let’s step back and calculate the cost of that oversight for Mr. Micklethwait.

£20 * 5,000 = £100,000.

A hundred… thousand… pounds. That kind of winning would put a nice dent in your mortgage, wouldn’t it?

The risk of low probability strategies

Everyone hears anecdotes about successful trend traders. Even winning only 30-40% 時間の, they walk away big winners over time.

You live HERE. Math isn’t good enough. You also need to wonder if your strategy can handle real-world problems.

What if they took that even lower? They could move their stop losses closer to the market. They’d reduce the size of the average loser, but the winning percentage might also drop to 10-20%.

数学的に, this could work out identically. 30% winners that earn 5x the average loser make for a profit factor of 1.5. A strategy with のみ 10% winners that make 15x the typical loser also have a 1.5 プロフィットファクター.

数学的に, this could work out identically. 30% winners that earn 5x the average loser make for a profit factor of 1.5. A strategy with only 10% winners that make 15x the typical loser also have a 1.5 プロフィットファクター.

They’re the same. Aren’t they?

Planet Earth isn’t the same as planet Math. 現実の世界で, people get sick and miss trades. または, they move across the Atlantic and forget to place a £20 bet.

People move. They get sick. Computers break. Things can and will go wrong with trading.

Richard Dennis once commented that the Turtle Traders would often make their annual returns off of one, single trade. A single trade!

When your performance depends on positive outliers, you’re massively vulnerable to accidents. What happens if you’re sick that day? Or your internet goes down? Or your broker locks you out of your account on the worst possible day?

Life happens, brother. A plan that depends on perfection is no plan at all. You need to make yourself robust to failure. Or even better, you’d make yourself antifragile.

Winning percentages

I mentioned that you can do really well winning 30-40% of time. Why then, does my own trading strategy, ルール, win 68% 時間の?

Because I’m exploiting compound, exponential growth. It’s not just how much you win, but the order in which you win it.

Let’s take two examples:

A ranging strategy with a profit factor of 1.3 that wins 68% 時間の.
A trending strategy with a profit factor of 1.3 that wins 30% 時間の.

Look at the red circles. Trending strategies are prone to extreme outcomes, both positive and negative.

Each strategy risks about 1% on any given trade. と, the average of the range and trend strategies are identical in the long run.

しかし… and this is an important “しかし”, the expected worst case scenario with the trending strategy is substantially more likely compared to the range trading strategy. 効果で, the average is more average with a ranging strategy than with a trending strategy.

何故ですか? Because unusual losing streaks are devastating to trending strategies. Have you ever had a losing streak? It happens to everyone.

By using a strategy with a higher winning percentage, you’re making yourself robust to streaks of losers. と, not to mention, your average length of a winning streak is considerably higher.

Even though you’re getting the same mathematical outcome, you’re making things much easier on your trading psychology when you adopt a strategy with a higher winning percentage.

ルール & Exponential Growth

You may have thought to yourself, “68%? That’s kind of a strange number to pick.”

You’d be right. The choice of 68% winners was not a coincidence. それは, 実際, the win rate on my Dominari strategy.

Dominari is about more than just buying and selling. Trading is also about managing a portfolio and position sizing. Position sizing is phenomenally important over your trading career.

My backtest results for Dominari show that for every $2,500, the account increased to $17,855.35 後 3 年. That kind of compound growth doesn’t happen by accident. That’s why I’d like to share the good news with you in my webinar this week.

I’m going to show you how to put that exponential awesomeness to work in your trading account. Sound good? ここをクリックしてください。 to register for the FREE webinar.

Things to Know Before Trading Silver

8 月 8, 2016 によってリオル Alkalay 3 コメント

If you think Silver trading is almost identical to Gold trading, you are wrong. But if you think Silver is utterly different you are wrong, 同様に. 混乱しています。? Don’t be. Trading Silver has a lot of similarities to trading Gold but there are two key dimensions that impact the way Silver behaves in relation to Gold—volatility and the Gold-Silver ratio.

Trading Silver: ボラティリティ

Below is a comparison of Gold and Silver volatility levels. It’s hard not to notice that Silver is substantially more volatile than Gold. The reason for that is because liquidity in Silver futures across the exchanges is substantially lower than Gold futures. この, もちろんです, means that smaller amounts (albeit still in the billions) can move the price of Silver much more than Gold. As a trader you should accordingly adjust your strategy to higher volatility.

実習では, Silver’s higher level of volatility first and foremost has an implication on stop losses. Because higher volatility tends to trigger more stop losses it means more margin of safety is needed when you place your stop loss. 他の言葉で,if you are trading silver, you have to place your stop loss a little further to make sure a sudden burst of volatility won’t throw you off the trade only to later hit your market. もちろんです, this also means you might reconsider certain trades, because if your stop loss is now further from your entry but your limit stays where it is your risk reward ratio is now lower and that could mean your trade is not necessarily worth it.

The second noticeable impact of higher Silver volatility is the manner in which Silver trends behave. Both Gold and Silver have a tendency to move in bursts of momentum but in Silver, the bursts tend to be stronger because of the higher volatility. As can be seen in the example below, both Gold and Silver eventually gains more or less the same percentages. But while Gold’s ascent was more gradual, Silver lagged Gold only to catch up with it later, in a fraction of the time and with a strong burst. この, もちろんです, can be of great value for the Silver trader, especially one who can exploit such opportunities to make a rather quick gain from シルバー catching up with Gold.

Gold-Silver Ratio

Perhaps one of the most important ratios in the commodity space. The ratio, as its name implies, measures the price ratio between Gold and Silver. 他の言葉で, how much Silver is Gold worth? Why is that ratio useful? Because the ratio between Gold’s price and Silver’s price moves in cycles (see chart below).

When the ratio is at cyclical lows Silver is relatively cheap compared to Gold. In a bullish run it usually means that Silver’s price has more upside and will therefore outperform Gold. The same goes for a bearish trend. When the ratio is at cyclical highs then Silver will underperform Gold, both on the way up and on the way down. したがって, watching the Gold-Silver price ratio allows you to gauge the potential momentum w

実習では, this means you can expect Silver to outperform Gold when the Gold-Silver ratio is at cyclical highs. A classic example occurred in 2011 when as the Gold-Silver chart was at record lows (see above) which resulted in Silver outperforming Gold on the way up (see below). As the ratio gradually moved into cyclical highs, Silver started to underperform Gold again.

ボトムライン

時々, Silver just moves too high too fast. When that happens it’s better to bail out before the burst. 反対に, sometimes Silver lags, so much so that you have to ask is it worth riding on volatility to catch up? The key to trading Silver is understanding its similarities with Gold but exploiting the differences between the two.

43 million real trades reveal the tactic of profitable forex traders

6 月 20, 2016 によってショーンオバートン 4 コメント

Traders that follow one simple rule are 3.118 times more likely to be profitable 12 months later than those that don’t.

The critical feature of profitable traders is their reward to risk ratio. [はい], you’ve probably read that before, but this time it’s backed up with research. FXCM studied 43 百万円 real trades from traders around the world to produce this analysis.

画像クレジット: DailyFX

Everyone “knows” を 90-95% of traders lose money. The good news is that the real percentage is noticeably lower. 83% of all traders lose money. と, that’s among the worst group. When traders use a reward to risk ratio of 1 以上, 50% of all traders are profitable after 12 ヶ月.

Be warned: the phrase “correlation is not causation” very much applies here. I cannot promise you that based on the data that using reward to risk ratios greater than 1 will automatically give you 50-50 odds of being profitable in the long run.

Logic, しかし, suggests that using good reward to risk ratios is a good idea. The advice to use reward-risk ratios above one appears in every trading book ever written for a good reason.

When traders use a reward to risk ratio of 1 以上, 50% of all traders are profitable after 12 ヶ月.

I suspect that it’s not the ratio itself that’s important. 代わりに, a large ratio discourages the worst mistakes that traders make.

I remember a project when I worked as a broker at FXCM. The systems desk analyzed the trades of the company’s most consistent losing traders. Perhaps taking the opposite signal of the worst traders might lead to profitable trades?

悲しいかな, we found something far more mundane: the worst traders lose because they over-trade.

Trading costs

Think about how trading costs apply to the reward risk ratio. If you earn $2 for every $1 that you lose, it makes scalping an impossible activity

Traders using a 2:1 ratio need to use more patience. Even though FXCM offers low spreads and commissions, 、 2:1 reward risk ratio implies further distances to the profit target. Longer pip distances lower the cost of every pip of profit.

Cost examples

FXCM averages a 1.4 pip spread on EURUSD. Let’s see how our reward-risk ratio affects trading costs using the 1.4 pip spread for our 2 examples.

Scalping

Profit target: 10 ピップ
スプレッド: 1.4 ピップ
Spread as a percentage of the profit target: 14%

Intraday Trend Trading

Profit target: 50 ピップ
スプレッド: 1.4 ピップ
Spread as a percentage of the profit target: 2.8%

Your cost as a percentage of profit in these examples are 5x higher when you scalp. それはよくありませんわ!

Holding trades with bigger profit targets minimizes the impact of trading costs. 別の方法は言いました, you get to keep more pips when you win by increasing the distance of your profit target from your entry price.

The advice to use reward-risk ratios above one appears in every trading book ever written for a good reason.

Following a reward risk ratio greater than 1 naturally pushes you towards lower trading costs. Lowering your trading costs logically suggests you have a higher likelihood of long term profitability. If you want to get other critical tips for similar results, then make sure to sign up for the Foundations of Profitable Trading Checklist.

Reward risk ratio explained

The reward risk ratio compares your average profit to your average loss. If your average winning trade is $30 and your average losing trading is $15, then you have a reward risk ratio of 2:1. If your average winning trade is only $8, but your average losing trade is $16, then your reward risk ratio is 0.5:1.

Does the winning percentage matter?

Amazingly, the percentage of winning trades doesn’t seem to matter. The high frequency trading firm Virtu is a great example of this. Virtu wins on 99.999% of trading days even though it only wins on 49% その取引の.

The FXCM data shows that the average trader wins more than 50% 時間の. EURUSD trades won 61% 時間の, while some pairs were closer to 50%. The percentage of winning trades on all currency pairs is greater than 50%.

画像クレジット: DailyFX

Despite winning more than 50% 時間の, trades with a poor reward risk ratio only had a 17% chance of earning a profit 12 months later.

… you get to keep more pips when you win by increasing the distance of your profit target from your entry price

If you’re currently struggling with your profitability, you’ve probably thought to yourself, “I need to win on more of my trades.” It’s like a business owner saying, “I need more customers.”

Smart business owners know that finding more customers is time consuming and expensive. It’s often much easier to sell more stuff to the customers that you already have.

It works the same way in trading. Instead of worrying about winning more often, you should focus your efforts on squeezing a few extra pips out of your winning trades.

If there’s anything that you should learn from this research, it’s this: the fastest way to improve is to earn more pips on your winning trades. You do ない need more winning trades to do better.

Types of strategies with good reward risk ratios

The type of strategy that you select almost automatically dictates your reward risk ratio. Ranging strategies usually have ratios less than 1, which the FXCM data shows have a 17% likelihood of long term profitability. Trending strategies have ratios greater than 1, which have 50% probabilities of long term profitability.

Ranging strategies

If you daytrade EURUSD where the daily range has recently been around 80 ピップ, then that 80 pip range is the hard ceiling of what you could possibly make in a day. You know from experience that getting the bottom tick or the top tick of the day almost never happens. If you’re lucky, you may enter within 10-20 ticks from the bottom.

Upon entry, you also need to give the trade breathing room. That stop loss probably needs to be something like 25 pips if it’s a tight stop or 40 pips in order to have plenty of breathing room.

The best exits in a ranging market occur in the middle. You don’t know if the market will push back to its ceiling. It has just as much chance as going back to support and it does up to resistance.

The mid point of an 80 pip range is 40 ピップ, but you’re likely entering 10-20 pips from the true bottom. That only gives you a potential range of profit targets from 20-30 ピップ.

The most realistic, good ratio is a 30 pip profit target on a 25 ピップの損失を停止, あります。 1.2. Most strategies will probably risk 40 pips to make 20, which is a ratio of only 0.67.

Consider what a range trading strategy is. The market is stuck. It’s having a hard time going anywhere. You should only range trade if you have a well researched strategy with a long term edge. それ以外の場合, the typical trader is 83% likely to walk away with losses after a year.

Trending strategies

Trend trading strategies should last for weeks or months at a time. Looking again at EURUSD on a multi-month time frame, the current long term range is from 1.05 up to 1.16. That’s a range of 900 ピップ, but it’s not like the market wobbles up and down through that range. 代わりに, it gets stuck near 108, then briefly pushes down. It comes back to 1.08, then pushes up to 1.12. It might push up again to 1.15, then trade back down to 1.08. It’s hard to guess whether the next move will be up or down.

A 3,498.4 pip move in the EURUSD over a 10 ヶ月の期間.

Better long term plays are to sit on trades and let them pick a direction. The best recent EURUSD example began on May 8, 2014 で 1.39934 and ended March 13, 2015, で 1.04946. That’s a colossal 3,498.4 pip move in just 10 ヶ月.

Is there a scenario where you’ll risk almost 4,000 pips on a trade? コースではないです。. What about 1,000? いいえ! What about 500? いいえ!

The natural risk reward ratio for these types of trends is astronomically high. For a few hundred pips of risk, you can make 10 or more pips for every one risked.

As long as you’re not aggressively trading, trending strategies are far more difficult to mess up. If you can click a button, enter a stop loss and then do nothing for months at a time, then you’re qualified to consider trend trading.

The practical application is of course more difficult than that description, but that’s the idea in a nutshell. If you’re a newbie forex trader and wondering where to start, long term trends are the place where you’re less likely to get hurt.

The problem for newbies, しかし, is that they’re looking for excitement. It’s not terribly exciting to place on trade and then do nothing for months. It’s one of the paradoxes of the market that less work can often lead to better results.

How to improve your trading

The reward to risk ratio is a critical element for new traders to increase their chances of success, but it’s not the only one. ここをクリックしてください。 to register for our free Foundations of Profitable Trading Checklist. You’ll learn simple, but useful, tips to improve your trading.

Correction vs Change in Trend

5 月 3, 2016 によってリオル Alkalay 4 コメント

How many times you have seen an FX pair, or any other instrument for that matter, start moving opposite to the trend? Did you wonder was it a mere correction or were you perhaps witnessing a change in trend? Your conclusion will have an acute impact on how you choose your next trade and thus your profit or loss.

もちろんです, it’s impossible to be 100% certain. But here are three simple methods that could help you decide which could dramatically improve your odds of being right.

Correction zone

The first method to identify a correction or a change in trend is one I like to call the “zone method.” The idea behind it is rather simple.

When a support line has also been a resistance line it’s no longer just support and resistance. むしろ, it is a border trimming between two separate zones. One is a zone where the pair is bullish and likely to move higher. The other is a zone where the pair is bearish and likely to move lower.

If that zone hasn’t changed, then it’s a temporary correction. If the zone has changed, then it’s a change in trend. From the EURUSD chart below you can see when the 1.168 was broken back in 2014, the pair moved into a bearish zone. If the EURUSD had rebounded back to the bullish zone, then that would mean the trend had changed to bullish.

The Trend Average

The second method that is useful in gauging a correction or trend change is done by running a moving average. The trick here is to play with the average period until it captures nearly all the trend. You can also switch between an exponential moving average and a simple moving average. 時々, an exponential captures the trend better and other times, a simple moving average is all you need. The idea here is to tweak, or fine tune, あなたがする場合. In our case, the trend has to be below the average.

それをしたら, you need to see how the current correction stakes up against the rest. If the latest correction is below the average then it’s a mere correction. If the average is broken, the trend has changed, just as can be seen in the chart below.

Notice that this method is usually effective where the trend is on a rather linear path. It might work on more volatile trends but it will not always be effective.

Failed Record

The last of the simple signals is actually more a matter of probability than a proper signal. And it’s actually the simplest to identify. Simply put it is when a pair fails to break a record and it doesn’t matter if it’s a record high or record low.

通常, three is the lucky charm. Say the pair fails to break a record on the third attempt, as in the examples below. その後、, there’s a higher likelihood that this is more than a mere correction. When a record high or record low is involved, there’s a much higher likelihood that this is not a mere correction but a change in trend.

結論として

As you may expect, there are many more methods to differentiate between a correction and a change in trend. Some are more advanced and complicated. Others, like Fibonacci retracement which often times is used incorrectly, tend to be misleading.

While the methods above are far from perfect, the average trader might find that they are simple and easy to implement. They could, therefore, serve him well as he tries to determine if the pair is in correction mode or an actual change in trend.

How to Profit from Vertical Shorting

4 月 25, 2016 によってリオル Alkalay 4 コメント

It’s not hard to decide if the trend is up or down. But have you ever noticed that sometimes the momentum is so intense the trend almost seems vertical? Kind of like the pair is falling off a cliff or ascending like a rocket?

The pair moves hard in a very short amount of time. I like to call those types of swings “vertical trades”, 長いか短いかどうか. In this article I intend to focus on my personal favorite, vertical shorting.

Basics of Vertical Shorting

Before delving into the technicalities, it’s always wise to first understand the fundamental mechanics behind a trade. 最初, what causes the market to move in a vertical short? It is a sudden wave of sellers that overwhelms the buyers so much that nothing can stop them. The pair, rather than moving lower in waves, moves lower almost in a vertical line.

Spotting the Vertical Short

It’s often true that when the market move down in a vertical manner, shorting at the right time is impossible. Very often, something unexpected has happened. That generally is what leads to a sudden wave of selling. 時々, it is a set of economic indicators which have surprised the market. その後、, a massive short selling wave begins.

On occasion, the piling up of massive short selling is evident just before the burst. And when that happens, it’s the ideal time to ride. Just start shorting and wait for the vertical short to do its thing.

What we can see in the EURUSD chart below is what I consider the ideal pattern for a vertical short. That’s simply because it’s perfectly evident and easy to implement, even for traders without years of experience.

What are the evident signs? At the beginning of the trend, marked with point A, we can see a regular bearish trade. しかし, as we move to point B, something quite interesting happens. There is a new sub-trend (marked in blue) with a steeper angle. 我々が見ることができるように, the ensuing waves, rather than reaching the red line at the peak, tend to top out much lower.

That is our sign that a vertical trend is coming. Going back to the basics, it can mean only one thing. That is that the volume of short selling is overwhelming the buys. Soon we will have a vertical, falling off a cliff sort of selloff.

When to Start Shorting?

Just like any trend, timing the exact phase in which you should begin shorting is important. With the right timing, you can maximize your profit and minimize your risk. Some might presume that the right time would be the break of the lower trend line. But that’s not always smart. Usually the break of the lower trend line is so abrupt that, by the time the break is confirmed, the market has moved too far off. その後、, you might find yourself risking much more to profit much less.

しかし, if we had started shorting at point C, we could put a rather close stop loss (すなわち. risking little) and bank on that vertical short. How would we spot our next point C? My rule of thumb is this: the third time the pair tops out (at our new blue trend line) that’s the confirmation that a vertical short is imminent.

今のところ, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the pair will fall off a cliff right afterward. しかし, the pair is likely to continue to slide lower anyhow until the burst. So even if the “spark” comes a bit after we are already banking on profits.

Stop Loss for Dessert

最後に, before we begin shorting, we need to talk about your stop loss. It’s important to put your stop loss above the higher red line and not the blue line. This way, even if the massive short selling we’re counting on doesn’t occur, you won’t be thrown out of the trade. If the pair resumes its old slower trend you could still make a profit, albeit at the much slower pace.

As I like to point out, nothing is guaranteed and many times vertical shorts don’t show clear signs. But if they do, you should know how to take advantage of them.

Ground Rules for Day Trading

1 月 28, 2016 によってリオル Alkalay 19 コメント

Day trading is challenging. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. The odds are stacked against you and the risks of loss seemingly lurks at every turn. That’s why it’s important to understand some ground rules about day trading. The rules are there so that you can safely swim with the sharks.

Range is Key for Day Trading

One of the most common mistakes with day trading is failing to identify the daily range. Say you’re planning to take a long on the EUR/USD. しかし, the pair’s already moved above its average daily range. What might be the result? Your trade could be doomed as the market tends to gravitate into its average range.

When you trade for a few hours most of the signals you count on are a few hours old. This means, 本質的に, that the signals are naturally soft and fluid. 市場, especially on an intraday interval, tend to gravitate towards its range. Thus fluid signals tend to be much less reliable.

Knowing the range of the interlay trade can lower your risk of loss. さらに, used in your favor, it could also improve your gains.

How to identify the range?

There are many techniques to identify the true range, including the Moving Standard Deviation またはボリンジャーバンド. しかし, those techniques tend to be more effective on swing trading. When day trading, I always recommend starting with what I call the top to bottom approach.

That is a method to identify your support and resistance levels in higher intervals, 言う, daily. Daily is actually ideal because it’s two levels up, compared to just hourly. Then you apply those levels on an hourly trade. What you get are solid levels you can count on rather than the fluid hourly support levels.

Down to Practice

This is a chart we used to identify the daily range. 今のところ, we drill down into our desired interval. In this chart it’s the hourly interval, where we can get reliable resistance and support levels for either shorts or longs.

ソース: esignal

Be in and Out Quickly

You should never stay in a trade longer than you have to; that’s clear and common sense. This method can be more forgiving in longer duration trades, e.g., multi days to several weeks. しかし, in day trading, when trades are counted by the minute, then every minute counts.

Spend too long at a trade and there can be dire consequences. The market that is already less reliable at such low intervals could turn against you. And the chances this could occur continue to grow the longer your trade is open. それゆえ, you should always concentrate on minimizing the time your trade is open while maintaining a worthwhile profit.

Down to Practice

How do you implement this rule in real day trading? You make sure your limit per trade is much smaller than the daily range. なぜ? As you approach the daily resistance/support level, the odds start to turn against you. There is a greater likelihood that the market will turn around before your position has reached its “full potential.”

Trade small and target prices that are well within the daily range. その方法, you improve your chance of hitting that “home run” and profiting from your position.

Beware the Trend

もちろんです, we’re all familiar with the old adage “the trend is your friend.” Well, to that I say if the trend’s a friend then who needs enemies? There’s a rule of thumb for day trading. If there’s a bullish long term trend (すなわち. several weeks) and you’re trading a short then beware. The market will have a tendency to unexpectedly surge higher and move against you.

Implementation

今のところ, some day traders may simply avoid taking shorts in just such a scenario. Yet that doesn’t have to be the case. 代わりに, you might just take trades with significantly lower leverage. By doing so you balance out the risk associated with trading against the long term trend.

空売りビギナーズガイド

12 月 11, 2015 によってリオル Alkalay 10 コメント

空売りは簡単です。, 右? 基本的には, それは買いと同じです, 他の道を行くだけ. ショートパンツを議論する際に少なくとも共通の信念であると思われます.

実習では, ショートポジションを取ることはかなり簡単です. しかし, それは実際の戦略に来るとき、それはまた全く違います. ため、, 好むと好まざるとにかかわらず, ショートパンツは、ミラーlong型を行います, 絶対に、完全に. そして、本当に良い短い売り手であることを, あなたは違いを知っている必要があります. また、それに向けて具体的にあなたの戦略を最適化する方法を知っている必要があります.

空売りは、恐怖ベースです

楽器あなたが下に移動を取引しているときに空売りあなたが得るとき. それはあなたが長い間しているときとは正反対です, または買主. そして、それは長く買いと空売りの端部との間のどこに類似点です. あなたが参照してください。, トレーダーは、購入またはそれらが明るくなりますその楽器の見通しを賭けている何かに長くなったとき. そして楽器は重要ではありません。, それは株式のか, もしくは商品, S様、あるいはインデックス&P500.

サイドノートとして、, しかし, 同じステータスの通貨があるとき外国為替の場合とは少し異なり、. たとえば, ペアはドルと円で構成されていると言います, これは両方の安全な避難所があります. しかし、それは言うことになるとEUR / USD, EUR / JPYまたはGBP / USD, これらのペアのショートパンツは、まだ恐怖によって駆動されます.

しかし、トレーダーが販売するとき? 今のところ, ニュアンスに気づきます, それは空売りではありません, すなわち. 落下価格からお金を稼ぎます, 実際の販売. トレーダーがポジションを販売しているとき、彼または彼女はお金を失うことへの恐怖からそれをやっています. その販売が利益を取るか、損失をトリミングされている場合、それは問題ではありません。, それはまだ恐怖によって駆動さです. あなたが短い販売しているとき、あなたは基本的には恐怖から利益をしようとしています.

恐れ, しかし, 楽観主義とは異なる動作します. あなたが参照してください。, 恐怖が来て、すぐに行く傾向にあります. あなたは、捕食者から実行している投資家の殺到に例えることができます.

それは憶測ではありません; それは、データの年に裏打ちされた事実です. 以下のチャートで過酷な空売りのイベントのいくつかを見てみましょう. あなたは明らかに利益が以上にかかったことがわかります 8 ヶ月も経たないうちに全滅し、達成するために 4 ヶ月.

ソース: esignal

なぜ短い売り手としてあなたにすることが重要です? それはショートパンツの正確な性質を明らかにしているため; 迅速かつ突然の. よう, このような動きを保証戦略はそれに応じて設計する必要があります. 他の言葉で, 迅速な利益のために迅速かつ急激な勢いに乗るために構築され、その後閉じ. 真, 突然の移動が高いがあります, 同様に, 運動量の闘争に一致. それはで成功するために運命づけされている場合は運動量は、すべての空売り戦略のDNAであるべきである「長期的。 "

ショート売主のためのスターターキット

成功した投資家になるためには高運動量短期間の貿易のための準備ができなければなりません. そしてもちろん、, それはあなたがトレード間隔にすべての相対です. ここでは、固体短い感を得るのを助けるためにいくつかの基本的な考え方とツールがあります.

トレンド枯渇: あなたが長期の強気トレンドを持っているときに傾向がレンガの壁に当たるポイントが来ます. バイヤーがちょうど来て停止し、ペアは抵抗を打ちます. すぐ後に, すでに位置を保持するものでは傾向が逆転され恐れます. 彼らはすぐに上から強制的に短いことになる彼らのポジションを清算する.

そこトレンドの枯渇を識別するために無数の方法があるが、ここではかなり単純なものです.

あなたは、以下のグラフに見ることができるように, この場合には株価はパロアルトと呼ばれます, hit the top point of 200. But only when it fell back to 190 それはかなり迅速かつ急に下に移動すると述べられ. 次に何が起こったのトレンドラインが簡単に壊れていたということでした. しかし、そこに別の、より重要な要素はここにあり、それは以下のMACDです. トレンドが上昇した場合の補正に先立つヒストグラムの棒ではなく、中程度でした. 比較して, 短いがあったときに、他の方向に作成されたものを見て.

ソース: esignal

それは明らかに恐怖の周りがあることを示します 190 迅速な売りを誘発しています. 傾向はより低い向かう前に、少なくとも2回の試行を有していなければなりません. このように, それは明らかだ別の試みは破るためになされなければならないこと 190.

私たちがすでに知っているので、我々は短いを期待することができ、この点の周りのおそれがあります. 私たちは首に達すると, 売りが最後の時間を始めた時点, それが短いため、当社のエントリポイントです. こと, もちろんです, その後すぐにクローズする必要があります。.

買われ過ぎ: ペアが買わあるときにショートして恐怖を活用する別の基本戦略は、. もう 1 回お願いします, そこにこので取引するための多数の経路及び方法があるが、ここでは単純なものです. EUR / USDを見て私たちの例のように、私たちは二つのものを探す必要があります. ペアは、一方では価格チャネルの上閉じ、RSIは、他に買わレベルである場合, ペアが買われ過ぎです. それは突然の短絡が始まろうとしていることを意味します.

ソース: esignal

11月のパフォーマンスの評価

12 月 1, 2015 によってショーンオバートン 4 コメント

QBプロ復帰 -6.59% 11月. ボード上の商品の動向をホッピングの私の目標は、相手に遅れました. 10月の開始 1, QB ProはAUDのミックスを取引しました, CADとNZD. これらの通貨は今日まで10月から結合範囲が残っているので、それポートフォリオ構成は、損失が生じました.

AUD十字架のパフォーマンス

CAD十字のパフォーマンス

NZD十字架のパフォーマンス

QB Proは、H1チャート上の平均回帰戦略ですが、, その性能は、長期的な動向に大規模な依存します. 毎月の最初の私の最大の課題は私のポートフォリオ配分は、現在の環境に最適なことを確認することです.

CADは、現在の傾向がピークに達しどこの上端付近にまだあります. 私は、CADの傾向が出て突破されている理由根本的なまたは技術的な理由を見ません. [はい], 私はいくつかのマイナーな上下ヶ月を通して座るする必要があるかもしれません; 価格は約統合可能性があります 1.30 宛先 1.33. また, それが再び上向きにズーム開始する可能性があります. たびトレンドが再開, 私は完全にCADが同じ方向にその傾向が続くと予想します.

CADは主要にまだあります, 長期的な上昇傾向. このチャートは、USDCAD毎日

今の市場で最強の傾向は、CHFの弱点であります. スイスフランを嫌うための基本的な理由がたくさんあります. の金利 -0.75% それらの間のチーフであります. しかし… それはまた、古いニュースです. CHF基本前面には何も変わっていません. 私は合理てるような気が, 私はちょうど分析をスキップして、チャートが言うに行くつもりです. USDCHFは上昇傾向であり、, 数日前のように, EURCHFペグの崩壊前に、以前の高突破.

スイスフランは再び破壊されます

CHFポートフォリオのQB Proシステムの最近のbacktestsは優秀に見えます. 以下のバックテストは、最新の1件のみをカバー 3 ヶ月.

9月以降、スイスフランのためのQBプロエクイティカーブ 1, 2015.

我々は良いポジションのポートフォリオワイズにいるような気が. これは経験的観察ではありません. それは感情の多くはで. 私の可能性が高い欠点が制限されているようにそれは感じています, 私は失うならば、その, それは小さなことでしょう. そして、私は勝利をすれば, それは多くの私の以前の連勝のように見えるだろうと.

あなたはQB Proシステム上に登録した場合 SeerHub, あなたのポートフォリオが自動的に更新されます.

ハンドルチャートパターンを使ったカップ

11 月 23, 2015 によってリオル Alkalay 5 コメント

私が初めてハンドルチャートパターンでカップの話を聞いたとき、私は確信した、いくつかのコーヒー中毒は名前を造語していました. 私はそれはあなたが午前中に最初のものを作った貿易のいくつかの簡単な種類であることが期待します. ええと, あなたはジョーのあなたの第1カップをすすっている間. しかし、私の驚きには、コーヒーとは何の関係も持っていないです, あるいは朝, そのことについては.

ハンドルチャートのパターンのカップは、スイングトレーダーの間でかなり人気があります. 今のところ, それは多くの他のパターンよりも多くの忍耐が必要です. しかし, あなたは右のそれを取得する場合, それはあなたの中の価値があります.

ハンドル付きカップ: いくつかの背景

ハンドル付きカップチャートパターンであります, 私の知る限り, ウィリアム・Jによって開発されました. 1980年代にオニール. パターンは、彼の本で広く説明されています, 株式でお金を稼ぐ方法, これは私が個人的にお勧めします.

ハンドル付きカップは、本質的パターンであります, あなたは間違いなく推測ないてきたように, ハンドルをカップによく似ています. 下の図は、視覚を支援する必要があります.

一般的に, ハンドル付きカップは底を打った後の買いの勢いを識別するために設計されました. 変曲点のソート, 数学の類似性のようなそのあなたのそれらのために. ペアは底打ちしたら, それは、U字型パターンを生成します. それは、高を破る偽の試みが続いています. その後、, それはハンドル形状を生成するためにわずかにフォールバック.

ハンドルの形成は購入するあなたの合図であります. ハンドルパターンとカップが正しく識別された場合, それは長い上昇傾向が続いする必要があります. その音は混乱しています? それは少しかもしれないが、それは確かにあなたができない何もありません (しゃれ) ハンドル.

ハンドルとカップを取引する方法

では、どのように、ハンドルを持つ本物のカップを識別します? そのために, いくつかの条件が満たされなければなりません.

まず最初に、底がU字型でなければならないことです. V字形状が十分であることをしないで子供を自分で. 実際のU字形状は非常に重要です. V字形状は、通常、販売を振り払うしない、非常に迅速なリバウンドを知らせるためです. このように, ハンドルパターンとカップは偽いずれかになります. 一番下の行は、長いU字形状が底打ちへのペアのために重要であるということです.

次は、ボリュームを監視する必要があり. ハンドルにカップを釘の最も重要な側面の一つは、体積であります. 出来高は、U字底の減少や形成時に先細りする必要があります. これは、売り手と投機家が出ていることを知らせます.

ボリュームは跳ね上がり、その後ハンドル形成中に再びスライドします. ペアは、最後の休憩をしたとき, ボリュームが上昇し、高止まりする必要があります. それは高運動量のための信号であります.

移動平均はまた、あなたが目を保つべきものです. 使用する移動平均するについての魔法数が存在しないことを理解. 週間間隔について, 私は、少なくとも持っていることを好みます 20 週傾向をキャプチャするための移動平均.

全体的な, 減少は底の前に. 下は平均の下で明確にすべきです, 示されているように. ご購入のキューがペア/株式が上昇したボリュームと並行して、移動平均の上に交差するハンドルの後に来ます.

以下は、ハンドルとの実際のカップがどのように見えるかを確認することができます. あなたはまた、我々は買いシグナルを同定したかを確認することができます. と, もちろんです, すべての最も興味深いです, 利点は、その後どのように見えますか.

ソース: esignal

覚えておいてください観光

ハンドルをカップに続いて、非常に有利なことができ. しかし、誤った信号を欠落しているか、または右のいずれかを待つために失敗することは心からあなたを要することができます. たとえば, 下のグラフを見てみましょう. それは、ハンドルのクラシックなカップです, 右? これは、ボリュームが突破口に、それらをバックバウンスの上昇もなかったしなかったことを除いて...それのように見えます. なぜ? これは誤った信号であったため. 株価は後で崩壊します, それにロングポジションを持っていた人たち溺死.

このパターンに関しては、最後の例では、実際には非常に言っていました. それはあなたがのために患者でなければならない告げます すべて 信号は、ハンドルとのカップを確認するために、. それ以外の場合, あなたの貿易は非常にひどく終わる可能性.

さらに, あなたは気づいているかもしれないとして、, 我々が使用されているすべてのパターンは、毎週の間隔であります. これは意図的なものです; ハンドルパターンとカップは長期毎週取引の中で最も効果的になる傾向があります.

あなたは、インデックスのCFDを取引し、ボリュームデータを欠場している場合, 心配する必要はありません. あなたは、ボリュームを得るために、先物データを使用することができます. それとも、インデックスを模倣ETF上のボリュームを見ることができます, Sなど&P500とSPYのETF.

結論としては, ハンドルパターンとカップは非常に有利なことができます. これは、長期強気トレンドを特定するのに非常に効果的です. しかし, あなたは警戒する必要がある」誤報。「あなたがジャンプする前に、「すべてクリア」を取得ことを確認してください.

ソース: esignal

効果的な近似曲線ナビゲーション

6 月 24, 2015 によってリチャード・ Krivo Leave a Comment

実質的に任意の取引のシナリオと同様に, 我々は成功の可能性が最大のペアを取引する必要があります方向判定しなければなりません.

歴史を見て 4 下記の GBPUSD の時間のグラフ, 我々は長い移動すること知っているいくつかの理由があります。 (購入します。) ペア. 上記価格のアクションは、 200 単純移動平均それから引き離し、. ペアになって高値 (緑の線) より高い安値基調を示す. また, このグラフの時, ポンドだった、最強通貨と米ドルより弱い通貨の一つであった.

これらのすべてを買いチャンスをポイントします。.

しかし, 疑問が残ります, 我々は、貿易を入力するとき?

ここでは、近似曲線の届け…

歴史を見てをみましょう 4 GBPUSD ペア以下の時間のグラフ…

We can see that price action has come in contact with trendline support at several points – ブルーボックスに注意してください。.

以来、価格をテストし、少なくとも 3 つの近似曲線を尊重 “触れる”, 我々は知っている私たちの近似が有効であります。.

近似曲線のサポートを使用してこのペアを購入する私たちの参入戦略を待つトレードに価格ダウン近似曲線とになります、 “買いゾーン”. 買いゾーンと屋台に取引の価格と近似曲線のサポートの下、キャンドルが閉じない場合, 同様に私達の青いボックスの例, 私たちのピットストップ近似曲線のすぐ下またはすぐ下近似曲線を貫通する最低の芯とペアでロングポジションを活かすことができます。.

価格抵抗に達した場合、トレーダーは取引を終了可能性があります。, 前高, または単純な採用することにより 1:2 リスク報酬の比率.

今、歴史を見てみましょう 4 下降近似の抵抗に対する販売の例のための USDCHF の時間のグラフ…

この取引のシナリオは事実上前の購入例かの逆になります.

それは、安値を下げるなってペアを販売したいです。 (赤い線) 下位の高値. 価格行動は以下、 200 SMA は、それから引き離し. また, このグラフの時, 米ドルが弱いと、スイスフランは強い.

もう一度, 価格行動はいくつかの点で私たちの抵抗線をテストします。 (ブルーボックス) だから我々は、有効な近似曲線を知っています。. 近似曲線抵抗まで取引価格待つだろうこの例、 “販売ゾーン”. 近似曲線上キャンドルを閉じない限り、, 私たちは、近似曲線を貫通する近似曲線上だけまたは最高の芯の真上の停止とのペアを売却すると.

貿易を閉じることが必要があります価格に達する前の低速または使用すること、 1:2 リスク報酬の比率取引を終了するには.

RKrivoFX@gmail.com

@RKrivoFX