Algoritma dan Strategi Forex Mekanikal | OneStepRemoved

Making Sense of CFD Trading

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Contracts for Difference a.k.a. CFDs are derivatives trading instruments between two parties. There are thousands of global markets which can be traded in a CFD format. With CFD trading, you’re essentially speculating on the price movements of financial instruments. These could be bonds, FX pairs, komoditi, indices, or stocks. It doesn’t matter whether the asset prices are rising or falling – all that matters is that you call it correctly. With CFDs, you’re not taking ownership of the underlying asset – you’re simply speculating on price movements. Walaupun begitu, understanding your risk vs. reward in any transaction is essential. In the United Kingdom, there is no stamp duty on profits generated through CFD trading, making this an attractive option for traders and investors.

CFD chart

Other benefits to CFD trading include the fact that it is a terrific hedging tool against losses that you suffer in physical investments. With CFDs, you don’t need to have all the money available upfront to purchase the contract – leverage and margin are used. This is a double-edged sword however since you must assume the pros and cons of leverage. If trades go your way, you will profit from leverage, and if they go against you, you stand to lose more than your initial investment. Namun begitu, many UK traders and European traders enjoy CFD trading since it is a flexible alternative to conventional investments.

CFDs in Action

The concept of a CFD is best understood by way of an example. At inception, you decide the number of CFDs you wish to trade. Every point movement is associated with a specific profit or loss. If markets move in your favour, you will profit off every point. If they don’t, you will incur a loss. CFDs allow traders to go long if they are bullish on the market, or short if they are bearish on the market. It is entirely possible to profit in either direction. One of the most popular uses of CFD trading is hedging. Secara ringkasnya, this means that you can use CFDs to prop up your other investments that aren’t doing so well. Sebagai contoh, if you purchased Google stock through your broker and the price started decreasing, you could open a CFD trade on Google and go short on it to generate profits accordingly. Dengan cara itu, you’re minimizing any potential losses through your Google stock. This is true of any asset category – indices, komoditi, Forex, saham, or bonds.

Any product that you trade on margin opens you up to potentially larger profits or losses. Since you are only paying a fraction of the overall cost of the trade (the contract), you don’t need all of the money upfront. Therefore it is inherently attractive to many traders. Popular CFD trading markets include the Dow Jones, the NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, the FTSE 250, the FTSE 100, the Nikkei 225, thousands of stocks, pasangan mata wang, commodities like oil, copper, emas, sugar, platinum, natural gas, and bond markets. According to leading CFD provider, Wilkins Finance the best CFD definition is one which explains what a CFD is, how it works, what advantages are involved, and what the current risks are. It must be borne in mind that CFD trading is a high-risk activity and is not suited to all types of traders. If you have a keen grasp of the risks of this type of trading activity, it is certainly an option worth considering.

How to Back Test if a Forex EA is Profitable

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Jadi, you believe you have found a sound forex trading system or Expert Advisor (DIA) and you are feeling ready to dip your toe in the water. It’s important not to rush in and instead take a step back to thoroughly test the strategy or EA through back testing.

Before we look at how to test if an Expert Advisor is profitable, first let’s look at what forex back testing actually is?

Forex back testing allows you to test the EA in order to see whether it actually does what it should do. Any forex trading system is completely useless if it doesn’t do what you expected it to do. Back testing uses historical data to enable you to see how the EA would have performed. By entering the historical data, you would be able to see which trades your EA would have recommended to you. This way you can check whether the EA is going to work for your chosen trading style and individual goals. Tambahan pula, this process allows you to understand in more depth how your EA works and to identify flaws in the system.

MetaTrader 4

Kembali ujian is time consuming but it is worth it. It is important to back test in both a bull and bear market and to collect sufficient data so that you know how your EA will perform regardless of whether the market is rising or falling. Satu lagi perkara, is the more accurate the data you use, the more precise your back testing will be. Oleh itu, it is preferential to use accurate historical data rather than indicative data and also use a realistic level for slippage.

Forex back testing is an essential part of developing and using a forex trading system. Walau bagaimanapun, it is important to keep in mind that the results your back testing give you are based on past performance, which is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Back testing will help you feel more confident about the ability of an EA, but it is important to remember that no amount of back testing can guarantee future profits.

Where can I back test?

MetaTrader 4 offers its users a Strategy Tester feature. This is simple to use and enables you to select the EA you installed from the Expert Advisor choices. For this you would need to have the MT4 platform. The most capable brokers offer their clients the MT4 platform. One such broker is Vantage FX, they are an award-winning forex ECN broker. Not only do they offer their clients MT4, but also some of the tightest spreads in the industry and unparalleled execution.

The Secret for Trading a Double Top

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The double top pattern is no doubt among the simplest and most familiar price patterns in technical analysis. Biasanya, a double top pattern is followed by a sell off. Dalam teori, this rather simple pattern should be easy for traders to pounce on and yet, too often, it’s a cause for frustration. That’s because the realization that a pattern has formed comes too late and, as a result, there’s little room for profit. But before you become discouraged there is an effective strategy – a tactic, if you will – that will allow a trader to recognize a double top and, at least most of the time, ride on the trend reversal, just in time to profit.

Spotting a Double Top

The first part in trading a double top is spotting the double top on time. I like to call it the two-step verification.

As we can see in the chart below, the second wave has reached a climax in Point A. Seemingly, that is still a bullish sign because Point A is higher than the previous peak. But there is more to the picture than meets the eye. If we stretch a trend line from the previous top we can see that Point A signals some sort of slowdown; it is lower than Point X where the trendline indicates it harus be. That is the first confirmation. If the top of the wave is lower than the trendline indicates, it is the first cue that a double top might be forming.

The second sign emerges in Point B, where the wave, rather than ending in the supporting bullish trendline below it, ends much lower. That is our second confirmation.

So why do those two occurrences signify that a double top is coming? Because when the top of the wave is lower than what the trend warrants, it suggests that the price range is shifting lower. Because the wave bounced back at Point Z, it confirmed that a double top is coming and that the price range is shifting lower.

Double Top

Entry and Stop Loss

After you recognized that the double top is, Sesungguhnya, coming, the next phase would, sudah tentu, be to place your entry and stop loss.

The ideal place to open a short under a double top would be just above the shoulder of the wave that signalled the double top; in the chart below this is wave one. Notis, Walau bagaimanapun, that the actual entry comes at wave number two. This requires discipline; if the following wave does not hit our sell point just above the shoulder of wave number one, we do not enter.

The reason? We want to minimize our stop loss risk. Our stop loss should be placed slightly above the top of wave one; if we enter too early we will be forced to take more risk in our stop loss and we could end up profiting much less.

Double Top

Setting Your Target

When setting a target for your short the most important aspect to consider is the timeframe you are trading. The longer the timeframe, the higher the likelihood that the double top will lead to a significant sell off. But the shorter the duration, the higher the likelihood that what you are witnessing is part of a correction within a bigger trend.

In the above example, we are witnessing a macro trend that lasted years and thus the likelihood that a major correction will follow this double top is high. Under such a case, the trader might set his target for a full reversal.

There is one noticeable trade off in trading a double top on a long-term trend; pada masa-masa, there may be several failed (single top) attempts to break higher rather than a single double top before the correction begins. That means that while the potential gain is higher it may take longer to materialize.

Oleh itu, if the double top you are trading belongs to a trend that lasts several days, or even several weeks, the prudent target should be at the lowest point of wave one in the double top. This will usually correspond with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Since our entry has been above the shoulder of wave one, it should provide a fair gain potential relative to the risk.

Kesimpulannya, it should be noted that it does not mean that if you’re trading a trend with a shorter time horizon that you cannot expect an utter trend change and a bigger potential. What it does mean is that you are just taking the risk that it might be part of a bigger bullish trend. If that is the case, then your stop loss could be hit before the limit is reached. But once again, this is just a risk you must decide if you are willing to take for a potentially bigger profit.

Sudah tentu, as I always like to stress, there is no perfect strategy. It is always advisable to use indications to get some contrast on the trade you are about to take, regardless of the strategy. But if performed with discipline, and considering that a double top pattern is so common, this strategy could come in handy.

Lessons from a Decade of Trading the JPY

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The past decade has been a turbulent one for the Japanese Yen, or the JPY as it’s familiarly known. The Yen’s multi-year bullish trend which started in the 1990s ended and it flipped into a brutal bearish correction. Lebih-lebih lagi, the Bank of Japan embarked on an unprecedented journey of more and more Quantitative Easing, effectively printing trillions of Yens to revive its stagnant economy. And finally, let us not forget the tsunami that hit Japan’s coastline in 2011 which tragically took a very hefty toll in human lives and which sent jitters across Yen pairs.

Jadi, why am I dwelling on this? Because this decade of Yen turbulence has provided us with some very important trading lessons on the JPY, specifically, and on trading, in general. Dalam artikel ini, I will elaborate on two important lessons for both the novice and experienced traders that I’ve learned through trading which may not be immediately intuitive.

JPY Lesson on Natural Disasters

In the period that preceded the 2011 tsunami, I was expecting a major turnaround specifically in the trend of the USD/JPY, and in the Japanese Yen, secara amnya. As I’ve often said, the longer the duration of your trade the more fundamentals will have an impact on the trend. Back in 2010-2011, I was focusing on the Japanese Yen which was in a multi-year bullish trend and so fundamentals were critical. Japan’s economy was suffering from persistent deflation and weak economic performance and that warranted a massive stimulus. Sudah tentu, any form of stimulus, either monetarily from the central bank or fiscally from the government, usually means a weaker currency. And so, that meant the end of the Yen’s strength and the start of a bullish trend in the USD/JPY (which moves in reverse). That meant that the bearish trend of 13 years would finally come to an end. Sudah tentu, that is provided stimulus would be forthcoming, which I thought was very likely.

Kemudian, pada Mac 11, 2011, the tsunami hit the coast of Japan. And as hysteria hit the markets, the USD/JPY plunged. Investors were crowding in to safety and speculation grew that the Yen’s long-term trend of appreciation would intensify as investors sought shelter.

The USD/JPY tested the 76 level and bounced back after a concerted effort by central banks across the world. Several months later, the pair finally bottomed out at a slightly lower level of 75. And the bullish rebound, aka weaker JPY, started in 2012.

What is the lesson? The lesson is that natural disasters in large economies, even severe ones, generally cannot change the long-term economic fundamentals and, oleh itu, cannot change a currency’s long-term trajectory. The JPY eventually had its trajectory to playout, Dgn kata lain. bahagian bawah, and the rebound took place only a few months later.

That means that even a disaster of this magnitude should not change your long-term strategy. Since a natural disaster can create short-term volatility it could present an opportunity to ride a long-term trend or a long-term turnaround at a more convenient entry.

JPY: Leg Down Vs Double Bottom

When we look at the USD/JPY bottoming out during 2012, we can see a rather interesting pattern. Rather than a double bottom warranted after a multi-year bearish trend (bullish JPY), what we see is a bullish wave right after the last bearish wave. The intermediate zone between is uncharacteristically short and the range uncharacteristically narrow. One common mistake is just to assume we had a swift bottoming out process, but the real answer is that that is a leg down and not a double bottom.

JPY

The key difference between a leg down and a double bottom is highly practical from a trading standpoint. On a double bottom the rebound takes much longer, with the pair fluctuating at lower levels for longer. Once the short sellers are shaken off, the rebound begins. Sebaliknya, in a leg down scenario the rebound is much quicker. But there is a price for that quick rebound. Because a leg down does not validate a change of trend, our prudent assumption should be that the bearish trend line should be respected and we should target Point X rather than Point M, at the peak of the last wave. Akhir sekali, a leg down would mean another leg down is required over the long run and that means that we should be alert to a potential change over the very long run.

JPY

What is the lesson? A leg down means a quicker rebound but with a lower potential while a double bottom means a slower rebound but one that lasts much longer. Dan, sudah tentu, we should always be on alert for another leg down. It should be noted, Walau bagaimanapun, that that might take a long while especially in the case in which Point M is broken, which would signal a much wider rebound.

Using Dow Theory in Forex

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There’s hardly a trader, whether short term or long term, who doesn’t rely, in some form or another, on technical analysis. Yet many don’t know that the backstory behind what we today refer to as technical analysis is actually a collection of ideas on trading stocks. Some of those ideas are, sebenarnya, more than a hundred years old; they are referred to collectively as Dow Theory. Going into the source, the so-called genesis of technical analysis can provide valuable lessons for a trader, even today and even in Forex. In this article I will go into some basic concepts of Dow Theory and offer my personal takeaways from it.

Pertama, walaupun, the backstory. The Dow Theory is named after Charles Dow, a financial journalist and one of the founders of the world-renowned Wall Street Journal. Dow had written a series of articles on his theories and concepts on market behavior, pricing and patterns for the Wall Street Journal. Those ideas were later developed further, refined and enhanced by followers such as William P. Hamilton, Robert Rhea and Richard Russell. The collection of ideas known as the Dow Theory therefor, encompasses concepts from Dow and his followers.

Dow Theory Concepts

With that brief history of the Dow Theory behind us, it’s time to get into the meat and focus on some key concepts and how they could be implemented when trading Forex.

I like to think of the Dow Theory as having two pillars—one theoretical, the other practical. The theoretical concepts focus on how to approach the market, the so-called theory behind trading.

The practical ideas are focused on things such as rising tops and bottoms, which confirm a bullish trend, and/or rising volumes, which confirms a trend’s strength. Since most practical ideas belong to basic technical analysis such as stretching a trend line, I will focus on the theoretical side which is often overlooked by traders.

Combining the two pillars should give the trader the proper approach and the necessary tools to beat the market.

Concept

The Dow theoretical side focuses on the benefits of the bigger picture. Dalam erti kata lain, it focuses on what the broad market is doing rather than a specific asset or security or, in our case, a specific pair. Mengapa?

Over the longer term, the broad market cannot be manipulated by any one player. It is true that over short durations, the broad market can be manipulated, but unlike a stock or a security, over the long haul there is no one factor with enough liquidity to manipulate the long term trend. That means that in order to profit one must first gauge the long term trend of the broad market, and only then can one make a decision on the next trade.

Lebih-lebih lagi, according to the Dow Theory, the broad market prices all the knowns and even the potential unknowns that have a higher probability of occurring. Dalam erti kata lain, the broad market is so big and diversified that the current trend and price behavior prices all the known positive and negative information as well as all that market participants believe could happen.

Dow in Forex

Although the Dow Theory was initially designed for analyzing stocks, the concepts stated above can provide some powerful insights into the Forex markets. If we refine the two concepts we get one clear idea; that is the best way to predict markets is to focus on the big picture and that means focusing on the long term and focusing on the broad market rather than a signal pair.

That means that focusing on the long term trend over months, and even years, can yield much better results than focusing on shorter durations. Lebih-lebih lagi, in a more practical sense, longer duration charts tend to be easier to analyze with support, resistance and trends much easier to define. Secara peribadi, it is one of the key reasons that I prefer long term trades. Sudah tentu, short term traders can be highly lucrative and successful as well, but focusing on the long term trend is essential for crafting a strategy that could work over the long run. It allows you to identify areas of high volatility, areas where a pair is destined to have resistance, or areas where short term support can be broken.

Another important takeaway is focusing on the broad market. How does that come to play in Forex? It means that you should always aspire to analyze the big trend. In practical terms, it means, contohnya, that you should always analyze the Dollar Index before trading a dollar pair, to figure out the long term trend on the dollar. It also means that, if you trade a low liquidity pair such as the USD/BRL, you should first identify the overall trend in the FX market, risk on or risk off.

As seen in the sample below, the EURUSD is trending higher which means a bearish Dollar. But on the other hand in the second chart , the Dollar Index which represents the Dollar against a basket of currencies, is trending higher as well suggesting the exact opposite, a bullish dollar. Since Dollar index represents the big picture for the Dollar it is the one we should relate to when determining the long term trend.

Dow Theory

Dow Theory

The Bottom Line

Sudah tentu, there are many more takeaways and more layers to the Dow Theory and it is always a good idea to go over the original books and learn from the source, whether it’s the articles by Charles Dow himself or The Stock Market Barometer written by William P. Hamilton and The Dow Theory by Robert Rhea. Tetapi, as an experienced trader, through the years I have found that the best takeaway from the Dow Theory is that its emphasis on the big picture improves your chances to avoid manipulation and areas of unexpected market reactions which, in turn, makes a strategy more successful. It doesn’t mean that you have to trade only over the long term but it does mean that you have to first figure out the long term before anything else.

 

Trading the Symmetrical Triangle

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I always like to say, that in any trading strategy, you should only be exposed to the market when absolutely necessary. Yang, whether it’s a strategy running on daily intervals or on monthly intervals, a trader should not stay in the market longer than needed because it leaves room for the unexpected. This is especially true when it comes to momentum strategies and it can be the difference between gain and pain. The Symmetrical Triangle strategy is one that is simple and effective enough to let you gain from momentum, without staying a second longer than necessary. The strategy relies on a pattern that, no surprise, is called the Symmetrical Triangle.

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

So what is the symmetrical triangle pattern? Secara ringkasnya, it is a pattern that enables you to buy into a correction and sell before the pair peaks again.

In order to identify a symmetrical triangle pattern, we have to watch for four unique yet symbiotic conditions.

  • The pair has to be in a long term bullish trend.
  • The pair has to be in the midst of a temporary correction.
  • The correction has to be in the shape of a triangle with lower highs.
  • The momentum of the correction has to converge with the oscillator, as seen in the MACD chart below.

Symmetrical Triangle

The buy signal comes at a very specific time. That is after the pair breaks the correction pattern and oscillator (dalam kes ini, MACD) moves back above zero and ascends into buy territory.

The symmetry of the triangle is what helps us determine our limit. The symmetry does not have to come in the shape of a symmetrical triangle on the upward move. Malah, only one element should be symmetrical—the highs. The highs from where the pair breaks the correction pattern (see point A) should be identical to the highs of the triangle.

Using the grid to measure the height, if the height of our triangle is three and a half squares we should stretch point A three and a half squares to point B.

The Idea Behind the Strategy

So what is the idea behind the Symmetrical Triangle?

To get the answer, we need to start with the end result.

The chart shows that the pair has continued above point B (which was our target), yet the symmetry rule made us exit the trade early. Mengapa? The idea is that when you have a triangle break that fulfilled the aforementioned conditions it tends to generate a move higher, sekurang-kurangnya the same height as the triangle from the point of the break. Jika, contohnya, the bullish trend would have been over, the pair would have topped out a little above point B. But if we were targeting G, a higher point, and stayed too long, we could have ended up with pain rather than gain. But the symmetry method allows us to take a profit even if the pair was about to top out and reverse.

When we add the entry methodology that allowed us to enter the trade early with minimal risk the picture become clear. The symmetrical triangle is an “in and out quick” strategy that minimizes risk in both directions. The entry is right at the bottom of the correction and the exit point is distant enough to make it a worthwhile trade and quick enough to avoid a potential trend reversal.

Before You Start

Sudah tentu, as with any strategy, including the Symmetrical Triangle, there is no singular perfect strategy that can always guarantee profit. The major downside to the Symmetrical Triangle strategy is that the pattern does not occur every time. Sebagai contoh, in the waves that followed we can see there were no lower tops when the pair corrected, just a steep descent towards the support line. That means that the Symmetrical Triangle is a low frequency strategy—it provides an entry signal only every once in a while.

Secara semula jadi, that means you cannot rely on this strategy alone for profits because it may take time between each opportunity. Tetapi, when balanced with other strategies, the Symmetrical Triangle can certainly spice up your results and allow you to improve your trading performance each time it produces a burst of momentum.

Mengenali Pivots harga emas

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Emas adalah sukar untuk meramalkan. Sering, Bilakah ia seolah-olah akan bersiap sedia untuk satu momentum penurunan harga, Ia berhenti dan lambungan. It also often looks highly bullish only to melt down and carry the bulls with it. Sudah tentu, this kind of uncertainty is an inherent part of trading, especially when it comes to gold. This means you have to invest more effort in spotting the possible breakouts and pivots that enable us to plan our trades. Dalam artikel ini, we will focus on how derivatives can help you discover accurate pivots in gold prices.

Gold Prices Through Derivatives

The real problem with gold is that it can fall or rise quickly, without warning. That makes it hard to spot opportunities for those who trade it as though it’s a forex pair. Walau bagaimanapun, those out-of-the-blue rapid movements are, in many cases, closely tied to the derivatives market, where most of the gold trade takes place just like any other commodity. In one of my previous articles about implied volatility, I demonstrated how derivatives can help you monitor volatility relatively easily. But what about pivots? You guessed it: derivatives – or, more specifically, option prices on the CME – could be rather handy in that respect, terlalu. Bagaimana? By showing us at what price most bets are concentrated.

Using Option Analytics on Gold

Below the CME Option Analytics illustrates the puts (pendek) and calls (lama) options open on gold at any price. The orange columns are puts, and the blue ones are calls – in other words, sellers versus buyers. The vertical red line in the middle is the current price. Sekarang, what does this mean and how the hell can it help us spot pivots? Very simple. All the orange columns (puts) on the left of the red line (harga semasa) are short bets waiting for the price to fall, while all the blue columns (calls) are long bets waiting for the price to fall.

As can be seen on the 1,100 harga, the short bets are overwhelmingly higher than the long bets. This leads to a rather straightforward conclusion: if the price of gold crosses below the 1,100 tahap, it will immediately trigger a pile of short options and trigger a strong bearish wave, marking a very important pivot we should watch from. If you are long on gold, a break below 1,100 might be a sign to bail out, while if you are a short seller, you might want to wait for gold to cross below 1,100 for bearish momentum to accelerate.

Sudah tentu, this is a mirror of what might happen on the right side of our price, where at 1,150 there are piles of call options waiting for gold to rise above. Seperti yang anda lihat, this is way lower than the pile of puts below 1,100 but it’s still significant and makes our upper pivot.

On the left side of the red line (options below our current price), if the number of call options was much higher than the puts – lots of bullish bets at 1,100 – it would pin down 1,100 as a strong support zone. Sudah tentu, once again dynamics on the left side (above current price) would be the mirror of this. This so-called screen is essentially the CME order book – just like when you look at your own account on the buy and sell orders, this illustrates the buy and sell options of the entire CME exchange on gold and for us. This means we can see where the broader market places its bets and sees pivots, and plan our next gold trade much better.

 

Memahami Terlebih beli dan Terlebih jual

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Jika anda sedang memasak sesuatu dan anda mendaftar di atasnya dan anda melihat bahawa ia adalah “dilebih-lebihkan” atau “terlalu matang”, apakah reaksi segera anda? Betul-betul. You take the dish out of the oven. Remove it from what caused its current overdone state and the sooner the better.

Terlalu lewat untuk makan malam ayam kami di bawah…

burned

 

Bagaimana jika enjin kereta anda adalah “panas”? Same deal…you do what it takes to get the engine cooled down. Immediately stop doing what caused the engine to become overheated in the first place.

overheat

 

Memandangkan reaksi semula jadi, ia adalah mudah untuk melihat mengapa langkah awal dan hampir serta-merta oleh ramai peniaga baru kepada “overbought” atau “terlebih jual” senario perdagangan adalah untuk melakukan sebaliknya dalam kes dan juga.

Mereka alasan bahawa kerana banyak membeli (lama) pesanan bergerak harga dan ditolak penunjuk ke wilayah overbought, yang perlu kita lakukan yang bertentangan dan mengambil yang singkat (menjual) kedudukan. Sebaliknya, if many sell orders caused the price to drop and move into oversold territory we much begin to take long positions. It’s almost as though they expect price to snap back like a rubber band when it reaches these overextended zones.

Baik…apa yang naluri reaksi yang betul untuk makan malam ayam dan enjin kereta tidak semestinya tindak balas yang betul apabila perdagangan.

Adalah penting untuk ingat bahawa apabila petunjuk masuk ke dalam kawasan Terlebih beli / Terlebih jual, it can remain there for quite some time. Just because the RSI or Stochastics indicator reads overbought for example, tidak bermakna bahawa tindakan harga pada pasangan itu adalah seperti mata ketat mampat yang akan segera snap belakang ke arah kawasan Terlebih jual.

Mari kita lihat pada carta harian sejarah pasangan NZDJPY bawah untuk contoh ini…

overbought chart

Perhatikan pada carta ini bahawa apabila Stochastics Lambat pergi atas 80 (dalam segi empat merah) ke dalam kawasan terlebih beli, harga terus naik lagi 780+ pips and Stochastics stayed overbought the entire time. Clearly a trader who went short when it first when into overbought territory would have missed out on a great move. They also would have gotten stopped out of their short position very quickly.

To see an example of where price retreats when Slow Stochastics goes into overbought territory we need to look no further than the area labeled “A” on the chart. In this case the candlesticks around “A”, Doji, puncak berputar, bintang menembak dan tukul besi, menunjukkan potensi untuk pengunduran yang.

Perkara yang perlu dibuat ialah sama ada senario boleh bermain keluar supaya tidak mempunyai tindak balas sentakan ke kawasan overbought dan oversold daripada petunjuk.

Ingat…

Hanya mengambil isyarat masuk dari petunjuk yang ada di arah trend jangka panjang.

Sebagai contoh, jika trend itu telah kuat dan berpanjangan kepada yang terbalik, dengan alasan bahawa penunjuk akan berada dalam wilayah overbought kerana ia mencerminkan tolak menaik tindakan harga. To take a short position at that point would to trade terhadap trend dan yang akan memperkenalkan risiko yang lebih ke dalam perdagangan itu.

Perdagangan baik,

Richard Salah

RKrivoFX@gmail.com

RKrivoFX

Gunakan Leverage maksimum Tumbuh Keuntungan Dan Mengurangkan Risiko

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Keuntungan boleh mengumpul cepat apabila seorang peniaga prop menggunakan strategi yang berdasarkan leverage maksimum dengan saiz akaun terhad. Dalam usaha untuk mengekalkan dan membina keuntungan tersebut, ia adalah penting untuk menghapuskan mereka dari akaun perdagangan mengikut perancangan yang baik.

Seperti yang diterangkan dalam artikel-artikel sebelumnya dalam siri ini, -leverage tinggi yang, strategi-kira rendah digunakan oleh peniaga-peniaga prop utama boleh digunakan untuk akaun dagangan berbilang menggunakan sistem yang berbeza, dengan setiap akaun dipermodalkan oleh tidak lebih daripada beberapa ribu dolar.

Jumlah di dalam akaun orang biasanya berkisar antara $1,000 untuk beberapa ribu dolar. Dengan cara itu, tidak ada halangan psikologi untuk menggunakan leverage maksimum pada setiap perdagangan.

Mengurangkan risiko dari drawdowns

Apabila anda mempunyai satu sistem yang menang, keuntungan terkumpul. Ia adalah menarik untuk "biarkan ia menunggang" dengan menggunakan sistem yang sama untuk perdagangan saiz kedudukan pernah lebih besar dalam akaun yang semakin meningkat.

Walau bagaimanapun, apabila keseluruhan modal yang boleh didapati di dalam akaun dagangan, ia bermakna bahawa modal terdedah kepada sistem yang tidak dapat dielakkan "meletupkan,"Yang biasanya menyebabkan pengeluaran yang curam. Walaupun peniaga terlepas bencana kewangan, dia boleh menjadi begitu mengelak risiko selepas itu untuk menjadi ragu-ragu dan tidak berkesan.

Tarik wang keluar setiap bulan

Cara bijak untuk mengelakkan drawdowns berlebihan kerana sistem perdagangan "up tamparan" adalah untuk menarik wang daripada akaun pada akhir setiap bulan berjaya. Dengan cara itu, apabila pengeluaran utama berlaku, ia tidak akan mengambil semua wang anda, hanya beberapa ribu dolar yang anda mampu untuk kehilangan.

Peniaga prop yang berjaya seperti Shaun menyapu keuntungan daripada setiap memenangi akaun dagangan bulanan dan memindahkan mereka ke dalam akaun bukan perdagangan, di mana mereka kekal selamat. Jadi, setiap bulan dagangan akaun terbuka dengan nilai masing-masing ditetapkan pada jumlah tertentu.

Tarik keluar sekurang-kurangnya cukup untuk menampung satu "meletupkan"

Sebaik sahaja anda telah melancarkan sistem forex anda, anda akan mahu untuk berfikir tentang gus mengenal pasti wang yang mencukupi untuk menampung sekurang-kurangnya satu kegagalan sistem perdagangan. Selepas anda telah dijamin jumlah yang akan digunakan untuk permodalan semula akaun dagangan anda, setiap keuntungan yang berikutnya adalah "wang percuma,"Sekurang-kurangnya dalam satu segi psikologi.

Peristiwa pertama adalah untuk menarik wang yang cukup daripada akaun dagangan untuk menampung sekurang-kurangnya satu malapetaka. Jika anda telah menikmati kebanyakannya memenangi bulan, seterusnya anda perlu memperuntukkan 50% daripada keuntungan anda untuk sistem yang berisiko tinggi.

Anda tidak boleh kehilangan apa yang tidak berisiko

Perlu diingat: Apabila seorang peniaga prop adalah menggunakan leverage maksimum, satu-satunya wang yang selamat adalah wang yang telah menarik diri daripada akaun perdagangan. Keuntungan harus ditarik dari setiap akaun perdagangan memenangi, setiap bulan.

Apabila seorang peniaga prop menang konsisten menggunakan leverage yang tinggi dengan akaun terhad-saiz, keuntungan daripada perdagangan kecil individu boleh mengkompaun cepat. Keuntungan yang diperolehi dari akaun dagangan kecil melimpah boleh mengkompaun ke dalam jumlah wang yang besar, dan ia adalah penting untuk menguruskan keuntungan berkesan.

Jika anda ingin mengetahui lebih lanjut mengenai menggunakan leverage maksimum untuk menarik keuntungan setiap bulan, sila hubungi Shaun.

Dengan sekatan Kekutuban Pengayun

oleh Tinggalkan komen

The forex sekatan strategi perdagangan adalah salah satu cara yang paling mudah untuk berdisiplin peniaga bebas untuk mendapatkan keuntungan dari pergerakan harga mata wang. Ia adalah satu strategi yang hebat untuk sistem perdagangan mekanikal kerana ia bergantung pada pengayun kekutuban dan hanya beberapa petunjuk dan parameter lain, yang dengan mudah boleh diprogramkan. Ia juga sesuai untuk dagangan di jangka masa 5 minit.

Yang paling menarik, apabila strategi kepungan didagangkan dalam kombinasi dengan strategi pembalikan yang berkaitan, peniaga-peniaga yang berpengalaman boleh mendapat keuntungan dengan "scalping" pengayun polariti.

Strategi sekatan forex menggunakan purata dua puluh hari eksponen bergerak (20 EMA) dengan sendiri atau dalam kombinasi dengan Bollinger Band tengah, sebagai pengayun kekutuban untuk menunjukkan kemungkinan ujian dan ujian semula paras harga. Bergantung kepada pasaran, gabungan ini biasanya menyediakan sistem perdagangan mekanikal dengan penilaian yang paling tepat mata sekatan forex.

kekutuban

Peniaga juga perlu mencari pengesahan isyarat daripada paras harga berdekatan pusingan-nombor, titik pangsi, dan sokongan dan rintangan.

Strategi ini dipanggil "sekatan" kerana 20 EMA atau kutub pengayun bertindak sebagai penghalang harga di sebelah sama ada. Jika harga yang lebih EMA dan tinggal di atasnya, dan kemudian harga retests EMA, ia mungkin akan melantun dan terus lebih tinggi.

Begitu juga, jika harga yang di bawah 20 EMA dan kemudian ia retests, berat sebelah sistem perdagangan ini ialah "pendek" dan harga yang mungkin akan menolak dan bergerak lebih rendah.

Sekatan-sekatan perdagangan menggunakan pengayun polariti

A kutub pengayun tipikal menggabungkan EMA dan Bollinger band tengah bersama-sama. Pada carta yang disertakan artikel ini, 20-EMA ditunjukkan sebagai garis kuning yang kukuh, manakala kutub pengayun digabungkan muncul sebagai streaming kuning. Sebagai contoh, pada carta di bawah, bulatan menunjukkan isyarat yakin pada pengayun polariti.

Blockade example

Sudah tentu, yang retest daripada EMA 20 hari adalah daging isyarat. Menggunakan pengayun polariti sebagai penunjuk EMA-Bolly Band gabungan meningkatkan kebolehpercayaan isyarat, dan memberi peniaga-peniaga forex gambaran yang lebih jelas daripada pasaran.

Di bawah adalah lebih sampel carta yang menunjukkan strategi sekatan forex:

Blockade strategy example 2

Blockade 3 example

Blockade example 4

Perubahan dalam kekutuban dan berat sebelah

Di seberang kanan carta di atas, jika harga pasangan mata wang yang meyakinkan menutup di atas 20 EMA, ini bermakna ia telah beralih kekutuban dan sistem perdagangan kini bertukar menjadi berat sebelah yang panjang.

Melangkah ke hadapan, sistem perdagangan mekanikal akan bersedia untuk menjual apabila harga mata wang jatuh ke bawah dan menyentuh 20 EMA.

Apabila berdagang sekatan

Strategi sekatan forex boleh digunakan untuk mana-mana pasangan mata wang. Ia boleh diniagakan di mana-mana beberapa selang masa, lagi sebahagian daripada peniaga-sekatan yang paling berjaya bekerja pada jangka masa 5 minit.

Dan, strategi ini boleh dijual beli bila-bila masa semasa sesi dagangan, tetapi beberapa julat masa menawarkan dagangan lebih dipercayai. Sebagai contoh, mungkin ada pelarian yang baik dan ujian semula, jadi trader forex yang memasuki perdagangan.

Namun, sesi petang di Asia mungkin sangat lambat. Kemudian, pada pembukaan harga London mungkin terlalu tidak menentu untuk masuk. Akhirnya, selepas keadaan tergesa-gesa awal turun naik dari pengumuman berita, harga boleh menyelesaikan supaya ia sekali lagi boleh diniagakan.

Jadi, peniaga perlu menyesuaikan strategi sekatan forex untuk muat setiap pasaran dan sesi.

Masa hari

Untuk kejayaan terbaik, strategi sekatan forex harus diniagakan pada zaman mudah tunai optimum. Masa-of-hari dalam pasaran mata wang tertentu adalah amat penting: Sekatan yang memerlukan kecairan, jadi ia terbaik digunakan apabila pusat-pusat perdagangan utama adalah yang paling aktif.

Di Asia, masa terbaik untuk berdagang sekatan forex adalah selepas Tokyo dan Singapura memulakan perdagangan mata wang. Dan, apabila berdagang semasa sesi Eropah, kedua-dua London dan Frankfurt harus terbuka sebelum memasuki mana-mana perdagangan.

Peraturan perdagangan Asas bagi forex strategi kepungan

• Mewujudkan trend atau berat sebelah menggunakan 20 EMA atau kutub pengayun lain

• Apabila harga yang selesa lebih tinggi daripada penunjuk kutub pengayun, trend menaik

• Apabila harga diniagakan lebih rendah daripada penunjuk, maka trend adalah bearish

• Harga menguji penunjuk polariti, kemudian menolaknya dan bergerak jauh

• Setelah pengesahan lanjut ditunjukkan melalui tahap harga pusingan-nombor berdekatan, titik pangsi, atau sokongan dan rintangan, perdagangan yang dimasukkan

Pesanan • Masukkan perdagangan dengan menggunakan beli-stop atau menjual setempat menetapkan satu atau dua pips di hadapan harga

• Ia terbaik untuk menetapkan perintah stop-kerugian di atas penunjuk polariti untuk menjual perhentian, dan di bawah penunjuk polariti untuk membeli-perhentian

• Tetapkan sasaran keuntungan yang dua kali ganda jumlah yang berisiko kepada perdagangan

• Apabila harga mencapai jumlah keuntungan yang bersamaan dengan risiko awal, bergerak trailing stop untuk pulang modal

Bagaimana untuk mengukur ujian semula yang berjaya?

Jika matawang ini sejak 20 EMA ia mesti pulih daripada dan kekal di atasnya. Dan, apabila harga berada di bawah EMA, ia mesti melantun dan kekal di bawah ia.

Untuk pengaturcaraan sistem perdagangan forex mekanikal, peraturan isyarat: Candlestick pertama menyentuh 20 EMA dijangka ditutup pada mana-mana bahagian yang sama ia asalnya didekati dari.

Ini candlestick pertama adalah isyarat dagangan. Apabila harga telah ditolak dari 20 EMA, sistem perdagangan yang menunggunya pengesahan mungkin oleh candlestick seterusnya. Jika candlestick tempoh masa yang akan datang menunjukkan satu langkah yang berterusan dari 20 EMA, isyarat perdagangan yang disahkan.

Semakin pengesahan daripada sekatan forex, yang lebih baik

The forex sistem perdagangan mekanikal perlu menggunakan pelbagai pengesahan sebelum memasuki mana-mana perdagangan. Beyond bergantung kepada ujian semula dan penolakan di 20 EMA menunjukkan sekatan, strategi ini adalah lebih dipercayai apabila beberapa petunjuk dan parameter lain digunakan. Ini termasuk pengesahan seperti tahap harga pusingan-nombor berdekatan, titik pangsi, dan sokongan dan tahap rintangan.

Ia adalah penting bahawa sistem perdagangan forex mekanikal tidak pernah mengambil perdagangan berasaskan semata-mata pada penolakan harga daripada 20 EMA. Sebaik-baiknya, sokongan dan tahap rintangan berdekatan, tahap harga pusingan-nombor, dan mana-mana tempat lain harga yang ketara juga harus mengesahkan arah dan masa dagangan.

Peniaga Forex juga perlu berhati-hati untuk menapis kesan sementara menunggu pengumuman perniagaan dan berita. Peniaga-peniaga forex yang berjaya sekatan sering menolak perdagangan dalam tempoh tiga puluh atau empat puluh lima minit sebelum sidang akhbar yang dijadualkan atau pengumuman berita, dan menunggu sekurang-kurangnya lima belas minit selepas pengumuman itu sebelum mempertimbangkan sama ada untuk menerima perdagangan.

Begitu juga, kebolehpercayaan hasil memenangi dipertingkatkan jika sekatan perdagangan forex adalah dalam arah yang sama dengan arah aliran semasa. Ini boleh ditentukan mengikut sebelah mana yang 20 EMA atau kutub pengayun harga mata wang pada masa ini terletak di.

Kelayakan kemasukan dan perintah

Kelayakan

• Harga adalah tren - Gosip daripada pelbagai atau penyatuan sebelum isyarat masuk

• Harga yang berjaya retests 20 EMA

Pesanan

Beberapa peniaga forex membahagikan penyertaan mereka di dua atau lebih banyak tempahan sehingga mereka akan mempunyai lebih fleksibiliti, sementara yang lain hanya membuat pesanan masuk tunggal.

Untuk entri panjang, menggunakan titik-masuk:

• Tempat 2 membeli-perintah berhenti di pintu masuk 2 pips di atas tinggi lilin pengesahan;

• Set arahan untuk tamat pada awal setiap lilin baru. Jadi, contohnya, apabila berdagang berdasarkan carta jangka masa lima minit, jika pesanan had ditetapkan mereka akan tamat pada awal lima minit candlestick berikutnya melainkan jika dicetuskan oleh tindakan harga dalam tempoh lima minit semasa candlestick;

• Letakkan perintah stop-loss 2 pips di bawah candlestick isyarat, yang merupakan salah satu yang menyentuh 20 hari EMA;

• Pesanan stop-loss juga boleh diletakkan di belakang titik swing yang berhampiran atau tahap sokongan-rintangan;

• Apabila berdagang pelbagai pesanan pada harga kemasukan yang sama, menetapkan sasaran keuntungan untuk perintah pertama pada jumlah yang bersamaan dengan risiko dalam pips. Jadi, contohnya, jika jumlah risiko forex peniaga dalam perdagangan itu adalah 20 pips, sasaran keuntungan untuk perintah pertama ditetapkan pada yang sama 20 pips;

• Sasaran keuntungan ditetapkan untuk perintah kedua dikira dua kali ganda risiko dalam pips. Meneruskan contoh di atas, sasaran keuntungan untuk satu perintah kedua akan 40 pips;

Untuk entri pendek, dengan titik-masuk:

• Tempat 2 menjual sehenti pesanan di pintu masuk 2 pips di bawah rendah lilin pengesahan;

• Seperti perdagangan panjang, untuk entri pendek forex peniaga perlu menetapkan perintah jualan sehenti untuk tamat pada awal setiap lilin baru;

• Letakkan perintah stop-loss 2 pips lebih candlestick isyarat, yang merupakan salah satu yang menyentuh 20 hari EMA;

• Pesanan stop-loss juga boleh diletakkan di belakang titik swing yang berhampiran atau tahap sokongan-rintangan;

• Seperti entri panjang, sasaran keuntungan yang ditetapkan pada jumlah yang sama kepada jumlah risiko perdagangan yang dinyatakan dalam pips. Jadi, jika jumlah risiko forex peniaga dalam perdagangan itu adalah 20 pips, sasaran keuntungan untuk perintah pertama ditetapkan pada yang sama 20 pips; dan, sasaran keuntungan untuk perintah kedua ditetapkan pada dua jumlah risiko dalam pips;

Trailing berhenti untuk mencapai sasaran keuntungan

Apabila harga mata wang telah berpindah baik dengan jumlah yang sama dengan jumlah risiko awal, kedudukan yang pertama telah mencapai sasaran keuntungan dan ditutup daripada. Pada masa yang sama, sistem perdagangan mekanikal menukar giliran stop-loss pada kedudukan baki ke tahap pulang modal.

Meneruskan contoh yang sama seperti di atas, sekali harga telah berpindah 20 pips ke arah yang baik, kedudukan pertama ditutup dan stop-loss pada kedudukan yang masih ditetapkan pada kenaikan seterusnya.

Trailing stop Baki kedudukan yang ditinggalkan di titik pulang modal sehingga pasaran ditutup daripada perdagangan, sama ada dengan mencapai sasaran keuntungan yang akan datang atau dengan mencetuskan berhenti pada tahap pulang modal. Tidak kira prestasi kedudukan kedua, keuntungan kedudukan pertama adalah hadiah besar.

Sekatan pembalikan

Kebalikan sekatan adalah variasi daripada forex sekatan strategi perdagangan. Ia juga menggunakan petunjuk kutub seperti EMA atau gabungan 20 EMA dan Bollinger band pertengahan. Varian perdagangan mata wang berdasarkan lompat parti kedua-dua petunjuk digabungkan dalam pengayun polariti. Pada carta di sini, pengayun ditunjukkan sebagai satu kontrak atau mengembangkan jalur kuning.

Dalam pembalikan sekatan, harga akan gerai, menukar arah, dan melalui pengayun kutub sebelum akhirnya kembali untuk menguji semula pengayun dari pihak lain.

Pada carta di bawah, sesi Asia (ditunjukkan dalam biru) mengalami penurunan harga secara beransur-ansur di bawah band yang agak sempit, selepas gagal pada pangsi tengah hari ini (garis kuning) pada awal sesi dagangan.

Harga yang kemudian terus ke bawah, penghirisan melalui pangsi mingguan (garis biru) sebelum punah dan menterbalikkan di peringkat harga pusingan nombor yang berhampiran (garisan kelabu).

Sekatan pembalikan

Sekatan Pembalikan

Seterusnya, harga yang berpindah indecisively sehingga akhir sesi Asia, apabila lonjakan terakhir dari bawah pengayun polariti menolak harga ke arah tahap pusingan-nombor. Ini merupakan tahap di mana 20 hari EMA dan Bollinger band pertengahan akan menyeberang.

Pada carta di atas, bulatan kiri sebelah menunjukkan isyarat kemasukan yang mendadak. Bulatan sebelah kanan menunjukkan satu lagi isyarat kemasukan yakin dengan menutup di atas julat harga semasa, ditunjukkan oleh garis putih.

Perbezaan antara sekatan forex dan sekatan pembalikan

Strategi sekatan forex melibatkan menunggu pengesahan trend, maka harga perdagangan melantun off pengayun polariti dalam arah yang sama dengan arah aliran.

Strategi sekatan pembalikan datang ke dalam bermain sekali trend ini selesai, dan harga yang membalikkan dan menutup di laman web ini bertentangan dengan pengayun polariti.

Kedua-dua strategi berkaitan didagangkan dalam arah yang sama dengan arah aliran semasa, yang ditentukan apabila harga mata wang ditutup pada sebelah tertentu pengayun polariti.

Blockade bearish reversal

Pembalikan Buruk

Contoh yang sebelum ini menunjukkan perubahan arah sekatan forex diniagakan dengan jangkaan kenaikan harga. Carta di atas menunjukkan senario yang bertentangan - A perdagangan bearish masuk dari bawah pengayun polariti.

Dalam contoh semasa, langkah menaik telah berakhir dan harga yang telah rosak dan ditutup berulang kali di bawah pengayun polariti. Isyarat teknikal bearish (dibulatkan) berlaku di bawah pengayun polariti.

Scalping pengayun polariti

Menggunakan kedua-dua sekatan forex dan sekatan pembalikan strategi bersama semasa sesi dagangan yang sama boleh membantu membawa kejayaan perdagangan dalam jangka masa yang lama apabila harga adalah pelbagai-terikat. Peniaga Savvy menggunakan kedua-dua strategi bersama-sama sebagai satu strategi EMA-scalping.

Strategi crossover Forex sekatan

Seperti strategi sekatan forex asas dan varian pembalikan, pelbagai strategi berkaitan sekatan crossover juga boleh dibangunkan dengan kuasa penasihat pakar (DIA) dan sistem perdagangan mekanikal diprogramkan untuk menonton kerana harga mata wang untuk keluar daripada saluran dan trend kuat. Kerana serba boleh, perdagangan sekatan forex menyediakan peluang yang menguntungkan untuk “kulit kepala” EMA dan pengayun kutub lain.

Adakah anda menggunakan strategi yang sama dalam perniagaan anda sendiri?