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AUD/USD short-term outlook based on recent economic reports

八月 29, 2016 由 肖恩·奥弗顿 发表评论

Before commodity markets started cooling off last year, the multi-decade commodity boom drove the Australian Dollar to all-time highs against the US Dollar severally. This caught the attention of the traders who were in many cases attracted by the interest rate differentials in the AUD/USD pairing. The duo benefit of this was that traders could take a long position on the AUD/USD and earn rollover from it; while at the same time gaining from the aggressive bull-run experienced then between the pairs.

The Australian Dollar (Aussie) has however in the recent past been subjected to negative economic outlook back at home due to the bear markets in the commodities markets especially the metals. 该 slow-down in the Chinese economy as they restructure their economic model to boost their local consumption also had negative impacts on Australia’s commodity exports; resulting to more pressure on the Aussie. This is a reversal of the past when the currency had been identified as one of the favored vehicles for traders.

AUDUSD current chart

The AUD/USD currency pair has been trading within the range of 0.7600 和 0.770 in the past weeks. The currency pair has appreciated by about 5.34% for the year-to-date. Recent developments in Australia and United States of America economic environments however have been shaping the AUD/USD price actions and affecting sentiments from the traders. Among the top economic news from Australia that will shape how the price of the pair will be fluctuating into the future include the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the interest rates to 1.5% on August 2nd 2016. 另一方面, the US released better than expected payroll’s data for the month of July 2016 and that has had a positive impact on the dollar. Both these two major announcements will be shaping the trend of the pair in the markets in different ways and ultimately they will affect your trading decision on the pair.

In a bid to boost consumer confidence and stimulate a consumption driven economic growth, 该 Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rate to 1.5% in August 2nd 2016 after another cut in May 2016 到 1.75%. The goal of the bank is to increase money supply in the economy and boost the purchasing power of consumers in order to trigger an increase in production and hence ultimately end up with higher GDP growth. It is however feared that the move will result in inflation rising hence rendering the monetary policy intervention counter-productive. With the rising inflation the Australian Dollar would eventually find itself hurt through depreciation against other major world currencies including the US Dollar. To dispel the inflation fears, 先生. Alan Oster the chief economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia said that “the outlook for inflation remains very subdued with underlying inflation expected to remain below the bottom of the 2 到 3 per cent target band until mid-2018.”

Economy

On the US economy, the labor department released the July jobs report on August 5th which was a record higher than the projections from economic analysts. The report showed that the US created 255,000 new jobs in the month of July 2016 against a forecast of about 180,000 jobs by most analysts. This data caught the market as a surprise and triggered an upward rally at the equities markets across the US. Having the payrolls expanding is therefore a proof of the confidence that both the US public and private sectors have in their economy and this re-affirms the position of the United States of America as the strongest economy in the world. The dollar is now rallying on such positive news and hence gaining more ground against other major global currencies as explained by AOMarkets in their analysis, “A resurgent USD is dominating financial news headlines and US indices are enjoying the spillover effects.”

Taken together, the AUD/USD currency pair seem to be leaning favorably on one side based on the just released economic data from both the US and Australia. The USD is riding on positive jobs data and the implied strengthening of the US economy. On the other hand the AUD is faced with potential depreciation if increased borrowing due to the rate cut results in an increase in spending that might trigger inflationary pressures. In the short-run we can therefore expect the USD to rally against the AUD before the election fever peaks in the US.

提起下: 这是怎么回事,在当前的市场? 标记: 澳元兑美元, 中国, 大宗商品, 利率

十一月绩效评估

十二月 1, 2015 由 肖恩·奥弗顿 4 评论

QB临回 -6.59% 十一月. 我跳船上的商品走势的目标是迟到了. 启动十月 1, QB专业交易澳元的混合, CAD和NZD. 这种投资组合中造成的损失,因为这些货币都维持区间震荡,从10月到现在.

AUD equity curve November

澳元交叉盘的表现

CAD equity curve

CAD十字架性能

NZD equity curve

纽元交叉盘的表现

虽然QB Pro是在H1图表一个均值回归策略, 其性能大量依赖于长期趋势. 在每个月的第一天我最大的挑战是要确保我的资产组合配置是有道理的,在当前的环境.

CAD仍然是附近的地方目前的趋势见顶上端. 我明白为什么CAD趋势见顶没有根本的还是技术上的原因. 是的, 我可能需要坐在通过一些轻微的上下个月; 价格可能会整合各地 1.30 到 1.33. 话又说回来, 它可能会开始缩小再次向上. 只要趋势继续, 我完全相信CAD继续的趋势,在同一方向.

美元兑加元

CAD是仍处于大, 长期上升趋势. 这个图表每日美元兑加元

在市场的强劲走势,现在是瑞郎疲软. 有很多根本原因不喜欢CHF. 的利率 -0.75% 是其中最主要的. 但… 这也是旧闻. 没有对瑞郎根本前面已经改变. 我觉得我合理化, 所以我只是要跳过分析,去什么图说. 美元兑瑞郎趋于上升,并, 由于前几天, 通过前期高点欧元兑美元联系汇率的崩溃打破了之前.

瑞郎突破再次

瑞郎突破再次

对瑞郎的投资组合QB Pro系统的最新backtests寻找优秀. 下面仅后台测试涵盖了最新的 3 个月.

CHF equity curve

自九月瑞郎QB临资金曲线 1, 2015.

我觉得我们正处在一个很好的位置组合,明智的. 这不是一个经验观察. 它更多的是一种感觉. 这感觉就像我可能下跌空间有限, ,如果我输, 这将是小. 如果我赢, 它会看起来很像我以前的连胜纪录.

如果你签署了关于QB Pro系统 SeerHub, 你的投资组合将自动更新.

提起下: QB临, 这是怎么回事,在当前的市场? 标记: 澳元, 计算机辅助设计, 瑞士法郎, 大宗商品, 纽元, 趋势

主要投资组合更新

11 月 1, 2015 由 肖恩·奥弗顿 6 评论

我们结束了在与黑月 0.74% 回报. 我意识到没有人上下跳跃着那种性能, 但我很诚实很高兴看到的变化.

在十月初, 我犯了一个很大的改变投资组合. 以前我试图挑对,总体是好的,. 这种做法一直是个鱼龙混杂. 虽然性能某些时期是相当不错, 如今年6月, 八月份是对投资组合相当苛刻. 我也不喜欢这对选择过程仍然是非常主观的.

该QB临策略, 像任何策略, 使得其最重要的贸易决策时,它选择的投资组合. 该战略是不是一个可以赚钱,在任何给定的环境. 代替, 它需要仔细选择仪器,为了给自己赚取利润的最好的可能的机会.

QB Pro equity curve October 2015

对于十月份的资金曲线 2015.

基于对 100 研究小时 与经纬早在9月份, 我已经能够选择组合仪表时减少自由裁量权的金额. 例如, 从2014年8月至三月的巨型怪物的性能 2015 被赶出完全由美元的强弱.

由于任何人谁买汽油的车晓, 今年的趋势移出货币和转化为商品. 特别是, 商品已经采取了真正的跳动. 中国的经济是溅射, 美国喜欢它的无法提高利率,大多数行业严重供过于求患. 石油产量在美国盛传拥有一个严重的产能过剩, 就证明了所有的美国钻井的垃圾债务评级. 世界各地的黄金矿业股已经金融市场的红头文件继子女, 交投在市盈率低 1.0.

那虚弱蔓延到商品货币, 像澳元甚至主要货币, CAD和NZD. 当我使用这些货币及其交叉盘的组合跑backtests, 我注意到,资金曲线更少径直向上穿过夏天. 更重要的是, 这个篮子对从中国首推受益, 而我自定义的篮子走了一步缩编.

我通过今年余下时间预计出中国和美国的多个问题. 尽管中国管理后的夏天落户, 困扰它的问题是什么,但固定. 最近的破产和国有企业的救助指向更多的蟑螂. 和, 你知道蟑螂规则. 其中有一, 有 10 更多. 我希望更多的中国首推跟随.

QB Pro lifetime Oct. 2015

的QB Pro的高风险的版本终生资金曲线.

商品货币风险是间接, 在这种预期系统发挥. 该产品组合已经在当前的环境下表现良好,, 因为我不希望任何改进都在中国, 要继续做好.

另一个变量是美联储. 我有启动的投资组合正好赶上美联储理事对任何美国加息,今年让人怀疑的,而不幸的运气. 出师不利的变化下车. 但是QB临不只是干的损失. 它反弹的股票低,几乎直线向上游行月其余.

美联储会议十月迫使州长假装仿佛一个 2015 加息是在桌子上. 人们总是认为美联储可能会加息只是为了证明这一点的机会. 他们一直在谈论这个的 9 现在几个月. 在一个点上的期货市场把赔率附近某处 67% 一 2015 加息. 会谈前, 这些预期下下跌 25%, 然后跳回约 50%.

即使美联储没有升息, 我看到加息的持续性计划的不可能概率低. 这些数据看起来像一辆汽车溅镀上烟雾. 还有随处可见的通货紧缩预期对金融市场和牛肉, 哪里 “投资者” 一直鼓励把钱投在垃圾债券来换取可怜 4-5% 产量. 经济是生病了. 消费者打破了他们的钱包和像喝醉了酒的水手花费的想法 2007 是可笑的.

我期待下一个 6-24 个月,美联储慢慢地从谈话加息而进入另一轮量化宽松政策的撤退. 这将标志着最终承认了凯恩斯主义的政策是没有工作,那里的市场丧失了信心中央银行.

置信崩溃将踩住货币市场, 但它应该行使的最严重冲击 商品货币 我的交易员,我专注于与QB临. 通缩会进一步按下行价格, 它提供了理想的条件为这个类型的策略.

新的交易员开口槽

我主持的十一月研讨会 12 教你就像我可以对算法交易. 该研讨会将会详细QB Pro的策略覆盖, 特别是 SB得分. 我还计划讨论美联储和中国的情况更详细, 因为这些是最重要的两个因素,我们采用的策略时,需要考虑. 确保注册报得到通知时,我开始接受登记. 这也是开放商在美国, 这是从以前的选择一个大的变化!

如果你有兴趣买卖QB Pro的策略你自己的账号, 出席研讨会将是强制性的. 而作为一个感谢您花费 45 从我学习你一天分钟, 你会得到一个强有力的财政刺激交易QB临. 更多细节很快来, 所以请确保您订阅电子报现在你忘记之前.

提起下: QB临 标记: 算法交易, 澳元, 计算机辅助设计, 中国, 大宗商品, 美国联邦储备, 金, 纽元, 油, THAT

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趋势

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